Stats Glossary

A quick reference for the advanced metrics highlighted throughout our Saints analytics dashboards.

Expected Points Added (EPA): EPA measures the value of a play by comparing the expected points before and after the snap. Positive EPA means the play increased the team's scoring outlook, while negative EPA means the opposite.Related: EPA/play, Total EPA
Success Rate: Success rate is the percentage of plays that increase the offense's expected points. It is a consistency metric that complements EPA by valuing sustained drives over explosive but rare gains.
Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE): CPOE compares a quarterback's actual completion rate to an expected rate based on throw depth, location, and game situation. Positive numbers indicate a passer is hitting throws that most players miss.
Air Yards: Air yards track how far the football travels past the line of scrimmage on a pass attempt. They help separate the quarterback's aggressiveness from yards gained after the catch.
Yards After Catch (YAC): YAC represents the yards a receiver gains after securing the football. It highlights playmaking ability once the ball is in a player's hands.
Pressure Rate: Pressure rate is the share of pass plays where the defense hurries, hits, or sacks the quarterback. It is a quick way to spot which linemen are winning at the snap.
Average Depth of Target (aDOT): aDOT captures how far downfield, on average, a receiver is targeted. Bigger numbers mean routes are developing deeper before the ball arrives, while smaller values reflect underneath usage.
Yards Per Route Run (YPRR): YPRR divides a receiver's total receiving yards by the number of routes they run, blending efficiency and volume to highlight who creates production on a per-route basis.
Win Probability: Win probability models estimate the Saints' chance to win at each moment using score, clock, field position, and other factors. Swings in win probability illustrate the game's biggest inflection points.
Fourth Down Model: The fourth down model weighs go-for-it, punt, and field goal options using expected points and win probability to recommend the choice that maximizes long-term success.