Week 6 game plan
Saints at New York Giants
Sunday, October 18 · 1:00 PM ET · MetLife Stadium · in 3 days
The furthest thing from even on this board is a concern — Saints third down defence vs New York Giants offence. Saints conversion rate allowed 50.0%, 29th of 32; Their conversion rate 44.9%, 8th of 32.
- Projected margin
- −5.4
- Market: +1.5
- Win probability
- 34%
- Away, so home field is against them
- Matchup edge
- −7
- Offence +15 · defence −29
Projected margin is from the Saints' side: positive means they are favoured. How these are calculated
Team profiles · 2026 season through Week 5
- Last updated:
- Oct 15, 2026, 12:46 PM
- Source:
- nflverse play-by-play, 2026
Every recommendation below is followed by the numbers it came from, so you can see why the model said it.
Keys to the game
The three unit matchups furthest from even, ranked by size of the gap rather than by whether it is good news.
- Concern
Saints third down defence vs New York Giants offence
Saints conversion rate allowed 50.0%, 29th of 32; Their conversion rate 44.9%, 8th of 32.
- Advantage
Saints red zone offence vs New York Giants defence
Saints touchdown rate inside the 20 77.8%, 4th of 32; Touchdown rate allowed inside the 20 71.4%, 23rd of 32.
- Concern
Saints turnovers offence vs New York Giants defence
Saints giveaways 2.9 per 100, 28th of 32; Their takeaways 2.3 per 100, 8th of 32.
The call sheet
Nine recommendations, each with the measurements it came from. Where a comparison is close, the line says so instead of inventing a preference.
On offence
What the numbers say about how to attack this defence.
Run it — the ground is where this defence gives
The dropback matchup scores −30 on the advantage scale; the run matchup +34. That is 64 points of separation, enough to plan around. New Orleans threw 0.3 percentage points more than the situation expected, so this extends their own tendency.
- Saints EPA per dropback:
- −0.034 (22nd of 32)
- EPA per dropback allowed:
- +0.069 (20th of 32)
- Saints EPA per carry:
- −0.104 (16th of 32)
- EPA per carry allowed:
- −0.054 (22nd of 32)
The pocket should hold; there is time to work down the field
The Saints allowed a sack or hit on 16.1% of dropbacks against a front that generated 11.6%. Deeper concepts are affordable here; the Saints' average target came 8 yards downfield.
- Saints QB sacked or hit:
- 16.1% (20th of 32)
- Dropbacks with a sack or hit:
- 11.6% (28th of 32)
- Saints play action rate:
- 16.1%
- Saints sack rate allowed:
- 5.8%
Motion is not the lever against this defence
Giants allowed −0.013 EPA per play on charted snaps with motion against +0.126 without it, a gap of −0.138 (25th of 32 in how much motion costs them). New Orleans motions on 58.2% of charted snaps, 18th of 32 in the league, so the personnel is already used to it.
- Giants EPA allowed with motion:
- −0.013
- Giants EPA allowed without motion:
- +0.126
- Saints motion rate:
- 58.2% (18th of 32)
Drives should finish; red zone is the softer spot
Third down: 45.8% against 46.4%, an edge of +73. Red zone: 77.8% against 71.4%, +79. New Orleans scored on 37.3% of drives last season; Giants allowed a score on 32.7%.
- Saints conversion rate:
- 45.8% (6th of 32)
- Conversion rate allowed:
- 46.4% (28th of 32)
- Saints touchdown rate inside the 20:
- 77.8% (4th of 32)
- Touchdown rate allowed inside the 20:
- 71.4% (23rd of 32)
On defence
What this offence does well, and which half of it to take away.
Take away the pass and make them grind it
Giants averaged +0.098 EPA per dropback (15th of 32 among offences) and −0.201 per carry (25th of 32). They threw on 48.7% of early downs, 24th of 32 in the league. The Saints allowed +0.151 per dropback and −0.003 per carry.
- Saints EPA per dropback allowed:
- +0.151 (26th of 32)
- EPA per dropback:
- +0.098 (15th of 32)
- Saints EPA per carry allowed:
- −0.003 (31st of 32)
- EPA per carry:
- −0.201 (25th of 32)
The rush is an even matchup
New Orleans sacked or hit the quarterback on 13.1% of dropbacks (25th of 32), with a 5.7% sack rate. Giants allowed contact on 17.6% of theirs (24th of 32). Rushing four keeps seven in coverage, which is the cheapest way to hold the numbers advantage.
- Saints sack or hit rate:
- 13.1% (25th of 32)
- Their QB sacked or hit:
- 17.6% (24th of 32)
Keep the top on, and get lined up against motion
The Saints allowed an explosive on 13.0% of plays (21st of 32); Giants produced one on 10.2% (23rd of 32). This is also where pre-snap movement shows up: New Orleans allowed +0.193 EPA per play against motion and −0.042 without it, a +0.235 swing, and Giants motions on 49.7% of charted snaps.
- Saints explosive rate allowed:
- 13.0% (21st of 32)
- Their explosive rate:
- 10.2% (23rd of 32)
- Saints EPA allowed with motion:
- +0.193
- Saints EPA allowed without motion:
- −0.042
Situational
The script the projection implies, and the swings around it.
Plan for playing from behind: variance is an asset
The rating model makes the Saints 5.4-point underdogs on the road, a 34% chance to win. The market has New Orleans as 1.5-point favourites, so the model is 6.9 points lower on the Saints. An underdog gains from a shorter game with higher-variance plays: fourth downs worth going for, shots that trade completion percentage for yardage, and no long field-goal attempts that hand back the ball at midfield.
- Model projection:
- −5.4 (34% to win)
- Market line:
- +1.5 (1.5-point favourites)
- Venue:
- Away · MetLife Stadium
The turnover battle is the likeliest way this gets away
New Orleans gave the ball away 2.9 per 100 plays and took it away 1.2 per 100. Giants gave it away 2.1 per 100 and took it away 2.3 per 100. Turnover rates are the least stable thing on this page year to year — treat this as the size of the swing, not a prediction of it.
- Saints giveaways:
- 2.9 per 100 (28th of 32)
- Their takeaways:
- 2.3 per 100 (8th of 32)
- Saints takeaways:
- 1.2 per 100 (27th of 32)
- Their giveaways:
- 2.1 per 100 (21st of 32)
Where the matchup is won
Each row sets one Saints unit against the Giants unit across from it. Both are placed in the league distribution first, so the edge means “this much better than them, relative to the other 31 teams” rather than a raw difference. Positive favours New Orleans.
| Matchup | Saints | Giants | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Passing | |||
| Saints offenceWhat the Saints got out of a dropback against what this defence gave up on one. | −0.03422nd of 32Saints EPA per dropback | +0.06920th of 32EPA per dropback allowed | −30 |
| Saints defenceThe Saints coverage and rush against what this offence does when it drops back. | +0.15126th of 32Saints EPA per dropback allowed | +0.09815th of 32EPA per dropback | −40 |
| Rushing | |||
| Saints offenceDesigned runs only — scrambles count as dropbacks, where the decision was made. | −0.10416th of 32Saints EPA per carry | −0.05422nd of 32EPA per carry allowed | +34 |
| Saints defenceWhether the Saints front can make this offence one-dimensional. | −0.00331st of 32Saints EPA per carry allowed | −0.20125th of 32EPA per carry | −27 |
| Line of scrimmage | |||
| Saints offenceProtection against rush. Sacks and charted QB hits — the contact play-by-play records, not a charted pressure rate. | 16.1%20th of 32Saints QB sacked or hit | 11.6%28th of 32Dropbacks with a sack or hit | +48 |
| Saints defenceRush against protection, the same measurement pointed the other way. | 13.1%25th of 32Saints sack or hit rate | 17.6%24th of 32Their QB sacked or hit | +1 |
| Explosives | |||
| Saints offenceFifteen yards through the air or ten on the ground: the plays that skip a down and distance. | 9.7%26th of 32Saints explosive rate | 12.5%20th of 32Explosive rate allowed | −22 |
| Saints defenceWhether this offence can get behind the Saints, and how often the Saints let anyone. | 13.0%21st of 32Saints explosive rate allowed | 10.2%23rd of 32Their explosive rate | −1 |
| Third down | |||
| Saints offenceDrives end on third down; this is who usually wins it. | 45.8%6th of 32Saints conversion rate | 46.4%28th of 32Conversion rate allowed | +73 |
| Saints defenceGetting off the field, against an offence that has to stay on it. | 50.0%29th of 32Saints conversion rate allowed | 44.9%8th of 32Their conversion rate | −80 |
| Red zone | |||
| Saints offenceThe four-point swing between a touchdown and a field goal, over drives that reached the 20. | 77.8%4th of 32Saints touchdown rate inside the 20 | 71.4%23rd of 32Touchdown rate allowed inside the 20 | +79 |
| Saints defenceHolding a drive that reached the 20 to three points. | 65.2%21st of 32Saints touchdown rate allowed inside the 20 | 64.3%13th of 32Their touchdown rate inside the 20 | −24 |
| Turnovers | |||
| Saints offenceBall security against a defence that takes it away, per 100 plays. | 2.9 per 10028th of 32Saints giveaways | 2.3 per 1008th of 32Their takeaways | −74 |
| Saints defenceThe other half of the turnover margin. | 1.2 per 10027th of 32Saints takeaways | 2.1 per 10021st of 32Their giveaways | −33 |
Personnel to feature
Saints pass catchers with at least 20 targets in 2026, ranked by EPA per target, filtered to players on the current depth chart.
100% of 2026 targets belong to players still on the depth chart. Everything else on this page is measured on a team that included the other 0%.
Chris OlaveWR
54 targets · 72% caught · +0.71 EPA per target
Average target 13.5 yards downfield, against a defence that gives up explosives more often than the league does — this is where the shots come from.
Devaughn VeleWR
37 targets · 68% caught · +0.39 EPA per target
Average target 9.6 yards downfield; 2.4 yards after the catch per reception is where the value is.
Juwan JohnsonTE
32 targets · 78% caught · +0.29 EPA per target
Average target 5.2 yards downfield; 5.2 yards after the catch per reception is where the value is.
Quarterback room: Tyler Shough, Spencer Rattler, Zach Wilson.
Model transparency
Game plan model transparency
Fourteen unit-versus-unit comparisons between the Saints and the New York Giants, each placed in the league distribution before being compared.
Matchup profile model · 2026 season through Week 5
- Last updated:
- Oct 15, 2026, 12:46 PM
Quick explanation
View data and model details
The warning above stays visible; detailed source, input, and limitation notes are tucked away for a cleaner fan dashboard.
After this one
- Week 7 · Saints vs Pittsburgh SteelersSunday, October 25 · 9:30 AM ET
- Week 9 · Saints vs Cleveland BrownsSunday, November 8 · 1:00 PM ET
- Week 10 · Saints vs Carolina PanthersSunday, November 15 · 1:00 PM ET
- Week 11 · Saints at Chicago BearsSunday, November 22 · 1:00 PM ET