Archived 2025 team analytics. In Fan Mode, start with the key Saints takeaways; Analyst Mode exposes source windows, EPA inputs, and limitations earlier.
Historical model output
Week 11
EPA/play declined over the last 3 archived games versus the prior sample.
Metric: EPA/play · Recent: +0.059 · Prior: +0.082 · 2025 regular season through Week 10
Success rate held steady over the last 3 archived games versus the prior sample.
Metric: Success rate · Recent: 49.3% · Prior: 50.0% · 2025 regular season through Week 10
EPA/play allowed held steady over the last 3 archived games versus the prior sample.
Metric: EPA/play allowed · Recent: +0.012 · Prior: +0.020 · 2025 regular season through Week 10
Weekly Saints efficiency with opponent context.
Share of plays generating positive EPA.
Recent four-game movement compared with the earlier archived sample.
Offensive EPA/play
Historical output+0.063
Declining/flat vs prior sample (-0.022 change).
Data window: 2025 regular season through Week 10
Defensive EPA/play
Historical output+0.004
Improving vs prior sample (-0.023 change).
Data window: 2025 regular season through Week 10
Offensive success rate
Historical output49.1%
Declining/flat vs prior sample (-1.3% change).
Data window: 2025 regular season through Week 10
Defensive success rate
Historical output45.1%
Improving vs prior sample (-1.6% change).
Data window: 2025 regular season through Week 10
Verified Saints-vs-opponent rows appear when comparable source data exists; missing opponent values stay pending.
Saints offense: +0.075
Falcons defense: Pending verified data
Advantage: unknown
Saints offensive EPA/play is available, but verified opponent defensive splits are not available locally.
Data window: 2025 regular season through Week 10 · Source: Bundled nflfastR Saints snapshot
Saints defense: +0.018
Falcons offense: Pending verified data
Advantage: unknown
Opponent offensive splits are missing, so this row remains partial.
Data window: 2025 regular season through Week 10 · Source: Bundled nflfastR Saints snapshot
Saints success rate: 49.8%
Falcons success allowed: Pending verified data
Advantage: unknown
Opponent success-rate allowed is unavailable; no fabricated value is shown.
Data window: 2025 regular season through Week 10 · Source: Bundled nflfastR Saints snapshot
Package usage split by run, pass, and conversion efficiency.
Model transparency
Team efficiency cards summarize archived Saints play-by-play metrics. They are context for analysis, not a live power rating.
Quick explanation
The warning above stays visible; detailed source, input, and limitation notes are tucked away for a cleaner fan dashboard.
Comparing the Saints’ decisions to an in-house conversion model blended with league baselines.
| Week | Situation | Model | Decision | Result | Win % Δ | EPA Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4th & 1 — CAR 36 Panthers • Q2 08:12 | Go for it Win prob: 61% | Went for it | Taysom Hill rush for 3 yards | +3.8 pp | +1.5 |
| 2 | 4th & 4 — DAL 48 Cowboys • Q3 05:44 | Go for it Win prob: 29% | Punt | Lou Hedley punt to DAL 12 | -2.1 pp | -0.8 |
| 3 | 4th & 2 — PHI 41 Eagles • Q4 11:18 | Go for it Win prob: 54% | Went for it | Carr pass to Olave for 6 yards | +4.7 pp | +2.1 |
| 5 | 4th & 3 — KC 33 Chiefs • Q2 02:02 | Go for it Win prob: 44% | Field Goal | Grupe 51-yard FG good | -1.2 pp | -0.4 |
| 6 | 4th & 1 — TB 22 Buccaneers • Q4 06:28 | Go for it Win prob: 79% | Went for it | Taysom Hill rush for 4 yards | +5.8 pp | +2.9 |
Derived from a custom nflfastR-based model calibrated to league 4th-down aggressiveness.
Model “what-if” slider to see how extra aggression shifts win probability.
Simulate a costly turnover to see the downside range.
Archived 2025 model output based on possession-level simulation, Saints play efficiency, and opponent strength available at the snapshot date.
As of Week 10, 2025Archived projected wins
10.5
Likely finishing as the NFC South #3 seed.
Archived division title odds
62%
Includes scenarios where New Orleans clinches outright.
Archived playoff paths
81% overall • 19% via WC
Chance of first-round bye: 11%