Team Dashboard
Derived from the nflfastR play-by-play mirror (regular season, 2025 through Week 10).
EPA/play (Offense)
EPA/play (Defense)
Offensive Success Rate
Adjusted EPA Trend
Weekly Saints efficiency with opponent context.
Success Rate by Week
Share of plays generating positive EPA.
Compare to opponent
Quick glance at the upcoming matchup vs league baselines.
EPA/play offense
+0.077
Opponent: -0.050
EPA/play defense
+0.018
Opponent: -0.030
Success rate
49.9%
Opponent: 44.0%
Personnel Efficiency
Package usage split by run, pass, and conversion efficiency.
EPA/play
Run % vs Pass %
3rd Down Conversion %
4th-down aggressiveness
Comparing the Saints’ decisions to an in-house conversion model blended with league baselines.
| Week | Situation | Model | Decision | Result | Win % Δ | EPA Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4th & 1 — CAR 36 Panthers • Q2 08:12 | Go for it Win prob: 61% | Went for it | Taysom Hill rush for 3 yards | +3.8 pp | +1.5 |
| 2 | 4th & 4 — DAL 48 Cowboys • Q3 05:44 | Go for it Win prob: 29% | Punt | Lou Hedley punt to DAL 12 | -2.1 pp | -0.8 |
| 3 | 4th & 2 — PHI 41 Eagles • Q4 11:18 | Go for it Win prob: 54% | Went for it | Carr pass to Olave for 6 yards | +4.7 pp | +2.1 |
| 5 | 4th & 3 — KC 33 Chiefs • Q2 02:02 | Go for it Win prob: 44% | Field Goal | Grupe 51-yard FG good | -1.2 pp | -0.4 |
| 6 | 4th & 1 — TB 22 Buccaneers • Q4 06:28 | Go for it Win prob: 79% | Went for it | Taysom Hill rush for 4 yards | +5.8 pp | +2.9 |
Win probability swings
Derived from a custom nflfastR-based model calibrated to league 4th-down aggressiveness.
Model “what-if” slider to see how extra aggression shifts win probability.
Simulate a costly turnover to see the downside range.
Season outlook
Modeled using a possession-level simulation seeded by the Saints’ play efficiency and opponent strength.
As of Week 10, 2025Projected wins
10.5
Likely finishing as the NFC South #3 seed.
Division title odds
62%
Includes scenarios where New Orleans clinches outright.
Playoff paths
81% overall • 19% via WC
Chance of first-round bye: 11%
Upcoming win probabilities
- Week 11 vs Falcons60%
- Week 12 vs Buccaneers64%
- Week 13 vs Raiders57%
- Week 14 vs Giants69%
Division finish distribution
- 1st62%
- 2nd26%
- 3rd9%
- 4th3%