Where the Saints stand
EPA/play declined over the last 3 games, against the sample before them.
2026 season through Week 5 · How these are calculated
Model output
Week 6
2026 season through Week 5
EPA/play declined over the last 3 games, against the sample before them.
Metric: EPA/play · Recent: -0.160 · Prior: +0.077 · 2026 season through Week 5
Success rate declined over the last 3 games, against the sample before them.
Metric: Success rate · Recent: 41.7% · Prior: 44.3% · 2026 season through Week 5
EPA/play allowed declined over the last 3 games, against the sample before them.
Metric: EPA/play allowed · Recent: +0.152 · Prior: +0.036 · 2026 season through Week 5
Weekly Saints efficiency with opponent context.
Share of plays generating positive EPA.
Team trend insights will activate once current-season game data is available.
Needs at least 6 games; only 5 available in the 2026 season through Week 5 snapshot.
Formation and backfield usage split by run, pass, and third-down conversion efficiency.
Both sides are measured the same way from the bundled league profiles. A row stays pending when no profile matches the opponent.
Saints offense: -0.040
NYG defense: +0.048
Advantage: opponent
Saints EPA per play on offense against the EPA per play this defense allowed across their own season.
Data window: 2026 season through Week 5 · 5 Saints games · Source: Bundled nflverse league team profiles
Saints defense: +0.089
NYG offense: -0.007
Advantage: opponent
EPA per play the Saints defense allowed against what this offense produced. Lower is better for the Saints.
Data window: 2026 season through Week 5 · 5 Saints games · Source: Bundled nflverse league team profiles
Saints success rate: 43.6%
NYG success allowed: 46.5%
Advantage: opponent
Share of Saints plays that stayed on schedule against the share this defense allowed to.
Data window: 2026 season through Week 5 · 5 Saints games · Source: Bundled nflverse league team profiles
Comparing the Saints’ decisions to an in-house conversion model blended with league baselines.
| Week | Situation | Model | Decision | Result | Win % Δ | EPA Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4th & 14 — MID 50 DET • Q2 00:26 | Kick Win prob: 24% | Punted | (:26) 17-R.Wright punts 41 yards to DET 9, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 85-T.Kennedy. | +0.9 pp | -0.4 |
| 3 | 4th & 15 — LV 48 LV • Q3 02:07 | Kick Win prob: 73% | Punted | (2:07) 17-R.Wright punts 38 yards to LV 10, Center-46-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 23-D.Laube. | +2.1 pp | +0.2 |
| 4 | 4th & 16 — ATL 47 ATL • Q2 00:49 | Kick Win prob: 10% | Punted | (:49) 17-R.Wright punts 39 yards to ATL 8, Center-46-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 14-O.Zaccheaus. | +1.1 pp | -0.2 |
| 4 | 4th & 10 — ATL 43 ATL • Q3 01:33 | Kick Win prob: 1% | Went for it | (1:33) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass deep left to 14-D.Vele to ATL 25 for 18 yards (31-X.Watts). | +1.9 pp | +3.4 |
| 4 | 4th & 7 — MID 50 ATL • Q4 03:02 | Kick Win prob: 0% | Went for it | (3:02) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass deep left to 12-C.Olave to ATL 27 for 23 yards (33-B.Bowman) [52-S.Ebukam]. | 0.0 pp | +3.1 |
| 5 | 4th & 7 — MIN 44 MIN • Q4 05:05 | Kick Win prob: 5% | Went for it | (5:05) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 83-J.Johnson to MIN 38 for 6 yards (7-B.Murphy). | -2.0 pp | -3.1 |
Derived from a custom nflfastR-based model calibrated to league 4th-down aggressiveness.
Model “what-if” slider to see how extra aggression shifts win probability.
Simulate a costly turnover to see the downside range.
20,000 simulations of the full season. Teams are rated on 2026 net EPA per play, shrunk 50% toward the league average, with 1.9 points of home-field advantage.
As of 2026 through Week 5 — results to date are final; remaining games simulated on 2026 ratingsProjected wins
5.9
Median NFC seed of #4 in the runs where they make the field.
Division title odds
5%
Includes scenarios where New Orleans clinches outright.
Playoff paths
6% overall • 2% via WC
Chance of first-round bye: 0%