Historical model output
Saints vs Falcons
Week 11
- Archived win probability
- 60.0%
Next matchup details will appear when verified schedule and opponent data are available.
Open game planTeam Dashboard
Archived 2025 team analytics. In Fan Mode, start with the key Saints takeaways; Analyst Mode exposes source windows, EPA inputs, and limitations earlier.
EPA/play (Offense)
+0.077
-0.022 vs last
EPA/play (Defense)
+0.018
-0.023 vs last
Offensive Success Rate
49.9%
-1.3 pp vs last
Archived outlook
Stock Watch
Stock Down: Saints offensehistorical
EPA/play declined over the last 3 archived games versus the prior sample.
Metric: EPA/play · Recent: +0.059 · Prior: +0.082 · 2025 regular season through Week 10
Holding Steady: Saints offensehistorical
Success rate held steady over the last 3 archived games versus the prior sample.
Metric: Success rate · Recent: 49.3% · Prior: 50.0% · 2025 regular season through Week 10
Holding Steady: Saints defensehistorical
EPA/play allowed held steady over the last 3 archived games versus the prior sample.
Metric: EPA/play allowed · Recent: +0.012 · Prior: +0.020 · 2025 regular season through Week 10
Adjusted EPA Trend
Weekly Saints efficiency with opponent context.
Success Rate by Week
Share of plays generating positive EPA.
ViewLeague baseline overlay
Team trend insights
Recent four-game movement compared with the earlier archived sample.
Offensive EPA/play
Historical output+0.063
Declining/flat vs prior sample (-0.022 change).
Data window: 2025 regular season through Week 10
Defensive EPA/play
Historical output+0.004
Improving vs prior sample (-0.023 change).
Data window: 2025 regular season through Week 10
Offensive success rate
Historical output49.1%
Declining/flat vs prior sample (-1.3% change).
Data window: 2025 regular season through Week 10
Defensive success rate
Historical output45.1%
Improving vs prior sample (-1.6% change).
Data window: 2025 regular season through Week 10
Opponent comparison
Verified Saints-vs-opponent rows appear when comparable source data exists; missing opponent values stay pending.
Saints offense vs opponent defensepartial · insufficient_data
Saints offense: +0.075
Falcons defense: Pending verified data
Advantage: unknown
Saints offensive EPA/play is available, but verified opponent defensive splits are not available locally.
Data window: 2025 regular season through Week 10 · Source: Bundled nflfastR Saints snapshot
Saints defense vs opponent offensepartial · insufficient_data
Saints defense: +0.018
Falcons offense: Pending verified data
Advantage: unknown
Opponent offensive splits are missing, so this row remains partial.
Data window: 2025 regular season through Week 10 · Source: Bundled nflfastR Saints snapshot
Offensive success rate vs allowedpartial · insufficient_data
Saints success rate: 49.8%
Falcons success allowed: Pending verified data
Advantage: unknown
Opponent success-rate allowed is unavailable; no fabricated value is shown.
Data window: 2025 regular season through Week 10 · Source: Bundled nflfastR Saints snapshot
Personnel Efficiency
Package usage split by run, pass, and conversion efficiency.
EPA/play
0.327
Run % vs Pass %
0.0% run | 100.0% pass
3rd Down Conversion %
100.0%
Model transparency
How these team numbers are calculated
Team efficiency cards summarize archived Saints play-by-play metrics. They are context for analysis, not a live power rating.
Quick explanation
View data and model details
The warning above stays visible; detailed source, input, and limitation notes are tucked away for a cleaner fan dashboard.
4th-down aggressiveness
Comparing the Saints’ decisions to an in-house conversion model blended with league baselines.
| Week | Situation | Model | Decision | Result | Win % Δ | EPA Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4th & 1 — CAR 36 Panthers • Q2 08:12 | Go for it Win prob: 61% | Went for it | Taysom Hill rush for 3 yards | +3.8 pp | +1.5 |
| 2 | 4th & 4 — DAL 48 Cowboys • Q3 05:44 | Go for it Win prob: 29% | Punt | Lou Hedley punt to DAL 12 | -2.1 pp | -0.8 |
| 3 | 4th & 2 — PHI 41 Eagles • Q4 11:18 | Go for it Win prob: 54% | Went for it | Carr pass to Olave for 6 yards | +4.7 pp | +2.1 |
| 5 | 4th & 3 — KC 33 Chiefs • Q2 02:02 | Go for it Win prob: 44% | Field Goal | Grupe 51-yard FG good | -1.2 pp | -0.4 |
| 6 | 4th & 1 — TB 22 Buccaneers • Q4 06:28 | Go for it Win prob: 79% | Went for it | Taysom Hill rush for 4 yards | +5.8 pp | +2.9 |
Win probability swings
Derived from a custom nflfastR-based model calibrated to league 4th-down aggressiveness.
4th-down aggression0% bump
Model “what-if” slider to see how extra aggression shifts win probability.
Turnover swing0% shock
Simulate a costly turnover to see the downside range.
Week 1 vs Panthers: W 27-16. Opening TD plus a second-quarter takeaway created a 23-point win-probability spike.
Archived season outlook
Archived 2025 model output based on possession-level simulation, Saints play efficiency, and opponent strength available at the snapshot date.
As of Week 10, 2025Archived projected wins
10.5
Likely finishing as the NFC South #3 seed.
Archived division title odds
62%
Includes scenarios where New Orleans clinches outright.
Archived playoff paths
81% overall • 19% via WC
Chance of first-round bye: 11%
2025 remaining schedule snapshot
- Week 11 vs Falcons60%
- Week 12 vs Buccaneers64%
- Week 13 vs Raiders57%
- Week 14 vs Giants69%
Division finish distribution
- 1st62%
- 2nd26%
- 3rd9%
- 4th3%