Team Dashboard

Derived from the nflfastR play-by-play mirror (regular season, 2025 through Week 10).

+0.077

-0.022 vs last

+0.018

-0.023 vs last

49.9%

-1.3 pp vs last

Weekly Saints efficiency with opponent context.

+0.10 better than expected vs opponents faced

Share of plays generating positive EPA.

Package usage split by run, pass, and conversion efficiency.

Saints rank #3 in EPA/play out of 4 personnel looks when in 11 personnel this season — indicating a WR-led efficiency structure.

0.327

0.0% run | 100.0% pass

100.0%

Comparing the Saints’ decisions to an in-house conversion model blended with league baselines.

Week	Situation	Model	Decision	Result	Win % Δ	EPA Δ
1	4th & 1 — CAR 36 Panthers • Q2 08:12	Go for it Win prob: 61%	Went for it	Taysom Hill rush for 3 yards	+3.8 pp	+1.5
2	4th & 4 — DAL 48 Cowboys • Q3 05:44	Go for it Win prob: 29%	Punt	Lou Hedley punt to DAL 12	-2.1 pp	-0.8
3	4th & 2 — PHI 41 Eagles • Q4 11:18	Go for it Win prob: 54%	Went for it	Carr pass to Olave for 6 yards	+4.7 pp	+2.1
5	4th & 3 — KC 33 Chiefs • Q2 02:02	Go for it Win prob: 44%	Field Goal	Grupe 51-yard FG good	-1.2 pp	-0.4
6	4th & 1 — TB 22 Buccaneers • Q4 06:28	Go for it Win prob: 79%	Went for it	Taysom Hill rush for 4 yards	+5.8 pp	+2.9

Derived from a custom nflfastR-based model calibrated to league 4th-down aggressiveness.

Game

Week 1 vs Panthers: W 27-16. Opening TD plus a second-quarter takeaway created a 23-point win-probability spike.

Modeled using a possession-level simulation seeded by the Saints’ play efficiency and opponent strength.

As of Week 10, 2025

Projected wins

10.5

Likely finishing as the NFC South #3 seed.

Division title odds

62%

Includes scenarios where New Orleans clinches outright.

Playoff paths

81% overall • 19% via WC

Chance of first-round bye: 11%