Matchup preview — Week 6 at New York Giants

The game

Saints at New York Giants, Sunday, October 18 · 1:00 PM ET. On the road at MetLife Stadium. The market has the Saints at 1.5; the model has them at -5.4, a difference of -6.9 points.

Where the matchup is won

• Passing · Saints offence — edge −30. Saints EPA per dropback −0.034 (22nd of 32) against +0.069 (20th of 32).
• Passing · Saints defence — edge −40. Saints EPA per dropback allowed +0.151 (26th of 32) against +0.098 (15th of 32).
• Rushing · Saints offence — edge +34. Saints EPA per carry −0.104 (16th of 32) against −0.054 (22nd of 32).
• Rushing · Saints defence — edge −27. Saints EPA per carry allowed −0.003 (31st of 32) against −0.201 (25th of 32).
• Line of scrimmage · Saints offence — edge +48. Saints QB sacked or hit 16.1% (20th of 32) against 11.6% (28th of 32).
• Line of scrimmage · Saints defence — edge +1. Saints sack or hit rate 13.1% (25th of 32) against 17.6% (24th of 32).
• Explosives · Saints offence — edge −22. Saints explosive rate 9.7% (26th of 32) against 12.5% (20th of 32).
• Explosives · Saints defence — edge −1. Saints explosive rate allowed 13.0% (21st of 32) against 10.2% (23rd of 32).
• Third down · Saints offence — edge +73. Saints conversion rate 45.8% (6th of 32) against 46.4% (28th of 32).
• Third down · Saints defence — edge −80. Saints conversion rate allowed 50.0% (29th of 32) against 44.9% (8th of 32).
• Red zone · Saints offence — edge +79. Saints touchdown rate inside the 20 77.8% (4th of 32) against 71.4% (23rd of 32).
• Red zone · Saints defence — edge −24. Saints touchdown rate allowed inside the 20 65.2% (21st of 32) against 64.3% (13th of 32).
• Turnovers · Saints offence — edge −74. Saints giveaways 2.9 per 100 (28th of 32) against 2.3 per 100 (8th of 32).
• Turnovers · Saints defence — edge −33. Saints takeaways 1.2 per 100 (27th of 32) against 2.1 per 100 (21st of 32).

Keys to the game

• Saints red zone offence vs New York Giants defence — Saints touchdown rate inside the 20 77.8%, 4th of 32; Touchdown rate allowed inside the 20 71.4%, 23rd of 32.
• Saints third down defence vs New York Giants offence (concern) — Saints conversion rate allowed 50.0%, 29th of 32; Their conversion rate 44.9%, 8th of 32.
• Saints turnovers offence vs New York Giants defence (concern) — Saints giveaways 2.9 per 100, 28th of 32; Their takeaways 2.3 per 100, 8th of 32.

Game plan

Run it — the ground is where this defence gives

The dropback matchup scores −30 on the advantage scale; the run matchup +34. That is 64 points of separation, enough to plan around. New Orleans threw 0.3 percentage points more than the situation expected, so this extends their own tendency.

• Saints EPA per dropback: −0.034 (22nd of 32)
• EPA per dropback allowed: +0.069 (20th of 32)
• Saints EPA per carry: −0.104 (16th of 32)
• EPA per carry allowed: −0.054 (22nd of 32)

The pocket should hold; there is time to work down the field

The Saints allowed a sack or hit on 16.1% of dropbacks against a front that generated 11.6%. Deeper concepts are affordable here; the Saints' average target came 8 yards downfield.

• Saints QB sacked or hit: 16.1% (20th of 32)
• Dropbacks with a sack or hit: 11.6% (28th of 32)
• Saints play action rate: 16.1%
• Saints sack rate allowed: 5.8%

Motion is not the lever against this defence

Giants allowed −0.013 EPA per play on charted snaps with motion against +0.126 without it, a gap of −0.138 (25th of 32 in how much motion costs them). New Orleans motions on 58.2% of charted snaps, 18th of 32 in the league, so the personnel is already used to it.

• Giants EPA allowed with motion: −0.013
• Giants EPA allowed without motion: +0.126
• Saints motion rate: 58.2% (18th of 32)

Drives should finish; red zone is the softer spot

Third down: 45.8% against 46.4%, an edge of +73. Red zone: 77.8% against 71.4%, +79. New Orleans scored on 37.3% of drives last season; Giants allowed a score on 32.7%.

• Saints conversion rate: 45.8% (6th of 32)
• Conversion rate allowed: 46.4% (28th of 32)
• Saints touchdown rate inside the 20: 77.8% (4th of 32)
• Touchdown rate allowed inside the 20: 71.4% (23rd of 32)

Take away the pass and make them grind it

Giants averaged +0.098 EPA per dropback (15th of 32 among offences) and −0.201 per carry (25th of 32). They threw on 48.7% of early downs, 24th of 32 in the league. The Saints allowed +0.151 per dropback and −0.003 per carry.

• Saints EPA per dropback allowed: +0.151 (26th of 32)
• EPA per dropback: +0.098 (15th of 32)
• Saints EPA per carry allowed: −0.003 (31st of 32)
• EPA per carry: −0.201 (25th of 32)

The rush is an even matchup

New Orleans sacked or hit the quarterback on 13.1% of dropbacks (25th of 32), with a 5.7% sack rate. Giants allowed contact on 17.6% of theirs (24th of 32). Rushing four keeps seven in coverage, which is the cheapest way to hold the numbers advantage.

• Saints sack or hit rate: 13.1% (25th of 32)
• Their QB sacked or hit: 17.6% (24th of 32)

Keep the top on, and get lined up against motion

The Saints allowed an explosive on 13.0% of plays (21st of 32); Giants produced one on 10.2% (23rd of 32). This is also where pre-snap movement shows up: New Orleans allowed +0.193 EPA per play against motion and −0.042 without it, a +0.235 swing, and Giants motions on 49.7% of charted snaps.

• Saints explosive rate allowed: 13.0% (21st of 32)
• Their explosive rate: 10.2% (23rd of 32)
• Saints EPA allowed with motion: +0.193
• Saints EPA allowed without motion: −0.042

Plan for playing from behind: variance is an asset

The rating model makes the Saints 5.4-point underdogs on the road, a 34% chance to win. The market has New Orleans as 1.5-point favourites, so the model is 6.9 points lower on the Saints. An underdog gains from a shorter game with higher-variance plays: fourth downs worth going for, shots that trade completion percentage for yardage, and no long field-goal attempts that hand back the ball at midfield.

• Model projection: −5.4 (34% to win)
• Market line: +1.5 (1.5-point favourites)
• Venue: Away · MetLife Stadium

The turnover battle is the likeliest way this gets away

New Orleans gave the ball away 2.9 per 100 plays and took it away 1.2 per 100. Giants gave it away 2.1 per 100 and took it away 2.3 per 100. Turnover rates are the least stable thing on this page year to year — treat this as the size of the swing, not a prediction of it.

• Saints giveaways: 2.9 per 100 (28th of 32)
• Their takeaways: 2.3 per 100 (8th of 32)
• Saints takeaways: 1.2 per 100 (27th of 32)
• Their giveaways: 2.1 per 100 (21st of 32)

Opponent profile — New York Giants

• Offence EPA per play: −0.007 (15th of 32)
• Defence EPA per play allowed: +0.048 (22nd of 32)
• Early-down pass rate: 48.7% (24th of 32)
• Explosive play rate: 10.2% (23rd of 32)
• Red-zone touchdown rate: 64.3% (13th of 32)
• Sack or hit rate: 11.6% (28th of 32)
• Takeaway rate: 2.3% (8th of 32)

Who to feature

• Chris Olave (WR) — 54 targets · 72% caught · +0.71 EPA per target Average target 13.5 yards downfield, against a defence that gives up explosives more often than the league does — this is where the shots come from.
• Devaughn Vele (WR) — 37 targets · 68% caught · +0.39 EPA per target Average target 9.6 yards downfield; 2.4 yards after the catch per reception is where the value is.
• Juwan Johnson (TE) — 32 targets · 78% caught · +0.29 EPA per target Average target 5.2 yards downfield; 5.2 yards after the catch per reception is where the value is.

How much of this roster is still here

100.0% of the snapshot season's targets belong to players on the current depth chart.

What this cannot see

Team profiles are 2026 season through Week 5: they describe the team that played, not the one that will. Nothing here models injuries, roster turnover, a new coordinator or rest.