Matchup preview — Week 7 vs Pittsburgh Steelers

The game

Saints vs Pittsburgh Steelers, Sunday, October 25 · 9:30 AM ET. Home at Stade de France. No closing line is published for this game yet.

Where the matchup is won

• Passing · Saints offence — edge −56. Saints EPA per dropback −0.016 (22nd of 32) against −0.045 (6th of 32).
• Passing · Saints defence — edge +41. Saints EPA per dropback allowed +0.101 (24th of 32) against −0.135 (27th of 32).
• Rushing · Saints offence — edge +7. Saints EPA per carry −0.122 (19th of 32) against −0.092 (18th of 32).
• Rushing · Saints defence — edge −91. Saints EPA per carry allowed −0.003 (32nd of 32) against +0.028 (5th of 32).
• Line of scrimmage · Saints offence — edge +36. Saints QB sacked or hit 14.5% (12th of 32) against 15.0% (17th of 32).
• Line of scrimmage · Saints defence — edge −17. Saints sack or hit rate 13.2% (25th of 32) against 16.8% (23rd of 32).
• Explosives · Saints offence — edge −38. Saints explosive rate 10.5% (23rd of 32) against 11.1% (12th of 32).
• Explosives · Saints defence — edge −28. Saints explosive rate allowed 13.6% (26th of 32) against 10.8% (22nd of 32).
• Third down · Saints offence — edge −27. Saints conversion rate 42.5% (10th of 32) against 32.5% (6th of 32).
• Third down · Saints defence — edge +3. Saints conversion rate allowed 47.1% (29th of 32) against 33.3% (27th of 32).
• Red zone · Saints offence — edge +35. Saints touchdown rate inside the 20 81.0% (2nd of 32) against 50.0% (4th of 32).
• Red zone · Saints defence — edge +19. Saints touchdown rate allowed inside the 20 64.3% (19th of 32) against 56.3% (21st of 32).
• Turnovers · Saints offence — edge −72. Saints giveaways 2.6 per 100 (24th of 32) against 2.4 per 100 (7th of 32).
• Turnovers · Saints defence — edge −11. Saints takeaways 1.8 per 100 (19th of 32) against 1.8 per 100 (18th of 32).

Keys to the game

• No facet separates far enough from the opponent to call an advantage.
• Saints rushing defence vs Pittsburgh Steelers offence (concern) — Saints EPA per carry allowed −0.003, 32nd of 32; EPA per carry +0.028, 5th of 32.
• Saints turnovers offence vs Pittsburgh Steelers defence (concern) — Saints giveaways 2.6 per 100, 24th of 32; Their takeaways 2.4 per 100, 7th of 32.
• Saints passing offence vs Pittsburgh Steelers defence (concern) — Saints EPA per dropback −0.016, 22nd of 32; EPA per dropback allowed −0.045, 6th of 32.

Game plan

Run it — the ground is where this defence gives

The dropback matchup scores −56 on the advantage scale; the run matchup +7. That is 63 points of separation, enough to plan around. New Orleans threw 1.1 percentage points less than the situation expected, so this cuts against their own tendency.

• Saints EPA per dropback: −0.016 (22nd of 32)
• EPA per dropback allowed: −0.045 (6th of 32)
• Saints EPA per carry: −0.122 (19th of 32)
• EPA per carry allowed: −0.092 (18th of 32)

The pocket should hold; there is time to work down the field

The Saints allowed a sack or hit on 14.5% of dropbacks against a front that generated 15.0%. Deeper concepts are affordable here; the Saints' average target came 7.8 yards downfield.

• Saints QB sacked or hit: 14.5% (12th of 32)
• Dropbacks with a sack or hit: 15.0% (17th of 32)
• Saints play action rate: 16.1%
• Saints sack rate allowed: 5.1%

Motion is not the lever against this defence

Steelers allowed −0.042 EPA per play on charted snaps with motion against +0.064 without it, a gap of −0.106 (23rd of 32 in how much motion costs them). New Orleans motions on 58.2% of charted snaps, 17th of 32 in the league, so the personnel is already used to it.

• Steelers EPA allowed with motion: −0.042
• Steelers EPA allowed without motion: +0.064
• Saints motion rate: 58.2% (17th of 32)

Third down is where drives will die

Third down: 42.5% against 32.5%, an edge of −27. Red zone: 81.0% against 50.0%, +35. New Orleans scored on 37.9% of drives last season; Steelers allowed a score on 40.3%.

• Saints conversion rate: 42.5% (10th of 32)
• Conversion rate allowed: 32.5% (6th of 32)
• Saints touchdown rate inside the 20: 81.0% (2nd of 32)
• Touchdown rate allowed inside the 20: 50.0% (4th of 32)

Stop the run first; their passing game is the lesser threat

Steelers averaged −0.135 EPA per dropback (27th of 32 among offences) and +0.028 per carry (5th of 32). They threw on 60.3% of early downs, 2nd of 32 in the league. The Saints allowed +0.101 per dropback and −0.003 per carry.

• Saints EPA per dropback allowed: +0.101 (24th of 32)
• EPA per dropback: −0.135 (27th of 32)
• Saints EPA per carry allowed: −0.003 (32nd of 32)
• EPA per carry: +0.028 (5th of 32)

The rush will need help to affect the quarterback

New Orleans sacked or hit the quarterback on 13.2% of dropbacks (25th of 32), with a 6.6% sack rate. Steelers allowed contact on 16.8% of theirs (23rd of 32). Pressure that has to be manufactured costs a defender in coverage, which is the trade to weigh against their explosive rate below.

• Saints sack or hit rate: 13.2% (25th of 32)
• Their QB sacked or hit: 16.8% (23rd of 32)

Keep the top on, and get lined up against motion

The Saints allowed an explosive on 13.6% of plays (26th of 32); Steelers produced one on 10.8% (22nd of 32). This is also where pre-snap movement shows up: New Orleans allowed +0.193 EPA per play against motion and −0.042 without it, a +0.235 swing, and Steelers motions on 50.5% of charted snaps.

• Saints explosive rate allowed: 13.6% (26th of 32)
• Their explosive rate: 10.8% (22nd of 32)
• Saints EPA allowed with motion: +0.193
• Saints EPA allowed without motion: −0.042

Plan for playing from behind: variance is an asset

The rating model makes the Saints 2.2-point underdogs at a neutral site, a 44% chance to win. No market line has been posted for this game yet. An underdog gains from a shorter game with higher-variance plays: fourth downs worth going for, shots that trade completion percentage for yardage, and no long field-goal attempts that hand back the ball at midfield.

• Model projection: −2.2 (44% to win)
• Market line: Not posted yet
• Venue: Neutral site (designated home team) · Stade de France

The turnover battle is the likeliest way this gets away

New Orleans gave the ball away 2.6 per 100 plays and took it away 1.8 per 100. Steelers gave it away 1.8 per 100 and took it away 2.4 per 100. Turnover rates are the least stable thing on this page year to year — treat this as the size of the swing, not a prediction of it.

• Saints giveaways: 2.6 per 100 (24th of 32)
• Their takeaways: 2.4 per 100 (7th of 32)
• Saints takeaways: 1.8 per 100 (19th of 32)
• Their giveaways: 1.8 per 100 (18th of 32)

Opponent profile — Pittsburgh Steelers

• Offence EPA per play: −0.050 (21st of 32)
• Defence EPA per play allowed: −0.056 (5th of 32)
• Early-down pass rate: 60.3% (2nd of 32)
• Explosive play rate: 10.8% (22nd of 32)
• Red-zone touchdown rate: 56.3% (21st of 32)
• Sack or hit rate: 15.0% (17th of 32)
• Takeaway rate: 2.4% (7th of 32)

Who to feature

• Chris Olave (WR) — 61 targets · 71% caught · +0.64 EPA per target Average target 12.8 yards downfield. This defence does not give up many explosives, so these are contested throws, not free ones.
• Devaughn Vele (WR) — 43 targets · 65% caught · +0.32 EPA per target Average target 10.3 yards downfield. This defence does not give up many explosives, so these are contested throws, not free ones.
• Juwan Johnson (TE) — 34 targets · 74% caught · +0.22 EPA per target Average target 5.1 yards downfield; 5.2 yards after the catch per reception is where the value is.
• Alvin Kamara (RB) — 20 targets · 75% caught · −0.25 EPA per target Average target 0.3 yards downfield, and the targets cost the offence points last season. Volume here should be a consequence of coverage, not a plan.
• Bryce Lance (WR) — 21 targets · 33% caught · −0.68 EPA per target Average target 13.3 yards downfield, and the targets cost the offence points last season. Volume here should be a consequence of coverage, not a plan.

How much of this roster is still here

100.0% of the snapshot season's targets belong to players on the current depth chart.

What this cannot see

Team profiles are 2026 season through Week 6: they describe the team that played, not the one that will. Nothing here models injuries, roster turnover, a new coordinator or rest.