Week 2
Saints vs. BAL
2026-09-20 · M&T Bank Stadium · Archived game model and play-by-play summary
Final
24-17
W 24-17
Model transparency
Archived game model transparency
Drive EPA, win probability timeline, and play explorer data are bundled outputs for a completed game.
Archived 2026
Game detail rollup · Week 2, 2026
Treat this output as archived context, not a current prediction.
Quick explanation
View data and model details
The warning above stays visible; detailed source, input, and limitation notes are tucked away for a cleaner fan dashboard.
Opponent comparison
Both sides are measured the same way from the bundled league profiles. A row stays pending when no profile matches the opponent.
Saints offense vs opponent defensehistorical · historical
Saints offense: -0.040
BAL defense: +0.002
Advantage: opponent
Saints EPA per play on offense against the EPA per play this defense allowed across their own season.
Data window: 2026 season through Week 5 · 5 Saints games · Source: Bundled nflverse league team profiles
Saints defense vs opponent offensehistorical · historical
Saints defense: +0.089
BAL offense: +0.132
Advantage: saints
EPA per play the Saints defense allowed against what this offense produced. Lower is better for the Saints.
Data window: 2026 season through Week 5 · 5 Saints games · Source: Bundled nflverse league team profiles
Offensive success rate vs allowedhistorical · historical
Saints success rate: 43.6%
BAL success allowed: 41.9%
Advantage: saints
Share of Saints plays that stayed on schedule against the share this defense allowed to.
Data window: 2026 season through Week 5 · 5 Saints games · Source: Bundled nflverse league team profiles
Archived 2026
Archived game data: Week 2, 2026
Drive EPA, win probability, and play explorer views are archived model outputs for this completed game.
- Last updated:
- 2026-09-20
- Source:
- 2026 game model dataset
Drive-by-Drive EPA
Each bar captures the expected points added generated on every Saints possession.
Field Position Map
Drive start and end points plotted on a virtual field.
0
10
20
30
40
5050
60
70
80
90
100
Drive 2Punt · 6 plays · 3:42
Drive 4Punt · 8 plays · 4:24
Drive 6Field goal · 12 plays · 6:24
Drive 8Field goal · 4 plays · 0:24
Drive 9Field goal · 8 plays · 4:00
Drive 11Punt · 3 plays · 1:42
Drive 13Touchdown · 9 plays · 5:18
Drive 15Touchdown · 16 plays · 6:38
Drive 17End of half · 1 plays · 0:13
Drives are mapped across the field from the Saints' goal line (0) to the opponent's end zone (100).
Win Probability Timeline
Quarter-by-quarter swing in the archived model win projection.
QB Play Quality Breakdown
Heuristic buckets classify each dropback by intent, accuracy, pressure response, and decision quality.
Accurate: 46% · Sustain: 33%
Explosive: 13% · Panic: 3% · Negative: 0%
Protection kept Shough composed with minimal panic responses to pressure.
Play Explorer
Filter by down, distance, route concept, and personnel to dig into the Saints play selection.
| Drive | Quarter | Clock | Down & Distance | Route | Alignment | Yards | EPA | Description |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO2 | Q1 | 13:25 | 1&10 | Run right guard | Under center, 2 backs | 3 | -0.14 | (13:25) 3-T.Etienne right guard to NO 27 for 3 yards (91-T.Hendrickson). |
| NO2 | Q1 | 12:46 | 2&7 | Run left guard | Under center, 1 back | 6 | 0.59 | (12:46) 3-T.Etienne left guard to NO 33 for 6 yards (21-J.Hawkins; 0-R.Smith). |
| NO2 | Q1 | 12:10 | 3&1 | Run middle | Under center, 2 backs | 2 | 0.36 | (12:10) 43-C.Donaldson up the middle to NO 35 for 2 yards (14-K.Hamilton; 0-R.Smith). |
| NO2 | Q1 | 11:38 | 1&10 | Play action | Under center, 1 back | 6 | 0.35 | (11:38) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 41-A.Kamara to NO 41 for 6 yards (0-R.Smith; 21-J.Hawkins). |
| NO2 | Q1 | 11:01 | 2&4 | Run middle | Under center, 2 backs | 2 | -0.42 | (11:01) 41-A.Kamara up the middle to NO 43 for 2 yards (96-B.Washington). |
| NO2 | Q1 | 10:22 | 3&2 | Dropback | Shotgun, 1 back | -7 | -2.47 | (10:22) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough sacked at NO 36 for -7 yards (95-T.Robinson). |
| NO2 | Q1 | 09:55 | 4&9 | punt | Under center | 0 | 0.02 | (9:55) 17-R.Wright punts 40 yards to BAL 24, Center-46-S.Daly, downed by NO-38-J.Price. |
| NO4 | Q1 | 02:52 | 1&10 | no play | Under center | 0 | -0.53 | (2:52) PENALTY on NO-71-K.Banks, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at NO 35 - No Play. |
| NO4 | Q1 | 02:52 | 1&15 | Run right end | Shotgun, 1 back | 4 | -0.17 | (2:52) (Shotgun) 41-A.Kamara right end to NO 34 for 4 yards (9-Z.Young). |
| NO4 | Q1 | 02:20 | 2&11 | Deep left | Shotgun, 1 back | 20 | 1.07 | (2:20) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass deep left to 12-C.Olave to BAL 46 for 20 yards (44-M.Humphrey). PENALTY on NO-12-C.Olave, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at BAL 46. |
| NO4 | Q1 | 01:53 | 1&10 | Short left | Shotgun, 2 backs | 2 | -0.44 | (1:53) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 41-A.Kamara to NO 41 for 2 yards (32-T.Simpson). |
| NO4 | Q1 | 01:24 | 2&8 | Play action | Under center, 2 backs, no huddle | 1 | -0.64 | (1:24) (No Huddle) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 41-A.Kamara pushed ob at NO 42 for 1 yard (2-N.Wiggins; 14-K.Hamilton). |
| NO4 | Q1 | 00:49 | 3&7 | Short left | Shotgun, 1 back | 11 | 2.03 | (:49) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 14-D.Vele to BAL 47 for 11 yards (14-K.Hamilton). |
| NO4 | Q1 | 00:23 | 1&10 | Screen | Shotgun, 1 back, no huddle | 1 | -0.53 | (:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 12-C.Olave to BAL 46 for 1 yard (32-T.Simpson). |
| NO4 | Q2 | 15:00 | 2&9 | Run | Under center, 1 back | 0 | -1.65 | (15:00) 6-T.Shough FUMBLES (Aborted) at NO 47, recovered by NO-3-T.Etienne at NO 47. 3-T.Etienne to NO 47 for no gain (32-T.Simpson). |
| NO4 | Q2 | 14:20 | 3&16 | Short middle | Shotgun, 1 back | 10 | -0.66 | (14:20) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short middle to 83-J.Johnson to BAL 43 for 10 yards (29-C.Rivers). |
| NO4 | Q2 | 13:38 | 4&6 | punt | Under center | 0 | -0.03 | (13:38) 17-R.Wright punts 37 yards to BAL 6, Center-46-S.Daly, downed by NO-42-M.Reid. |
| NO6 | Q2 | 10:10 | 1&10 | Short left | Under center, 1 back | 0 | -0.49 | (10:10) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short left to 12-C.Olave (44-M.Humphrey). |
| NO6 | Q2 | 10:04 | 2&10 | Dropback | Under center, 1 back | 0 | -0.77 | (10:04) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 83-J.Johnson to NO 48 for 9 yards (0-R.Smith; 2-N.Wiggins). PENALTY on NO-18-B.Lance, Offensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at NO 39 - No Play. |
| NO6 | Q2 | 09:35 | 2&15 | Short right | Shotgun, 1 back | 2 | -0.58 | (9:35) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 41-A.Kamara pushed ob at NO 36 for 2 yards (2-N.Wiggins). |
| NO6 | Q2 | 08:59 | 3&13 | Deep middle | Shotgun, 1 back | 29 | 3.49 | (8:59) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass deep middle to 14-D.Vele to BAL 35 for 29 yards (21-J.Hawkins). |
| NO6 | Q2 | 08:25 | 1&10 | Play action | Shotgun, 1 back, no huddle | 0 | -0.47 | (8:25) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short right [15-M.Green]. |
| NO6 | Q2 | 08:17 | 2&10 | Run middle | Under center, 1 back | 2 | -0.50 | (8:17) 41-A.Kamara up the middle to BAL 33 for 2 yards (32-T.Simpson). |
| NO6 | Q2 | 07:34 | 3&8 | Short middle | Shotgun, 1 back | 11 | 1.85 | (7:34) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short middle to 12-C.Olave to BAL 22 for 11 yards (2-N.Wiggins). |
| NO6 | Q2 | 07:01 | 1&10 | Run right tackle | Under center, 1 back | 2 | -0.49 | (7:01) 41-A.Kamara right tackle to BAL 20 for 2 yards (9-Z.Young; 0-R.Smith). |
| NO6 | Q2 | 06:22 | 2&8 | Run right guard | Shotgun, 1 back | 8 | 0.98 | (6:22) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough right guard pushed ob at BAL 12 for 8 yards (32-T.Simpson). |
| NO6 | Q2 | 05:53 | 1&10 | Run left tackle | Under center, 1 back | 0 | -0.43 | (5:53) 41-A.Kamara left tackle to BAL 12 for no gain (98-T.Jones). |
| NO6 | Q2 | 05:12 | 2&10 | Screen | Shotgun, 1 back | -4 | -1.43 | (5:12) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 41-A.Kamara to BAL 16 for -4 yards (29-C.Rivers). |
| NO6 | Q2 | 04:30 | 3&14 | Dropback | Shotgun, 1 back | 11 | -0.09 | (4:30) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough scrambles right end pushed ob at BAL 5 for 11 yards (24-M.Starks). |
| NO6 | Q2 | 03:49 | 4&3 | field goal | Under center | 0 | 0.05 | (3:49) 10-D.Carlson 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-17-R.Wright. |
| NO8 | Q2 | 00:15 | 1&10 | Run middle | Shotgun, empty | 2 | -0.13 | (:15) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough up the middle to BAL 42 for 2 yards (95-T.Robinson). |
| NO8 | Q2 | 00:11 | 2&8 | Short left | Shotgun, 1 back | 13 | 0.89 | (:11) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 14-D.Vele ran ob at BAL 29 for 13 yards. |
| NO8 | Q2 | 00:06 | 1&10 | Short left | Shotgun, 1 back | 0 | 0.13 | (:06) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short left. |
| NO8 | Q2 | 00:02 | 2&10 | field goal | Under center | 0 | 0.83 | (:02) 10-D.Carlson 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-17-R.Wright. |
| NO9 | Q3 | 14:53 | 1&10 | Run middle | Under center, 1 back | 8 | 0.61 | (14:53) 3-T.Etienne up the middle to NO 34 for 8 yards (21-J.Hawkins). |
| NO9 | Q3 | 14:17 | 2&2 | Play action | Shotgun, 1 back | 0 | 0.29 | (14:17) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short right to 18-B.Lance. PENALTY on BAL-95-T.Robinson, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at NO 34 - No Play. |
| NO9 | Q3 | 14:13 | 1&10 | Run right end | Under center, 2 backs | -4 | -1.24 | (14:13) 3-T.Etienne right end to NO 35 for -4 yards (15-M.Green). |
| NO9 | Q3 | 13:35 | 2&14 | Play action | Shotgun, 1 back | 1 | -0.68 | (13:35) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough scrambles left end pushed ob at NO 36 for 1 yard (91-T.Hendrickson). Penalty on NO-51-C.Ruiz, Offensive Holding, declined. |
| NO9 | Q3 | 13:07 | 3&13 | Short right | Shotgun, empty | 25 | 3.53 | (13:07) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 83-J.Johnson pushed ob at BAL 39 for 25 yards (2-N.Wiggins). |
| NO9 | Q3 | 12:25 | 1&10 | Short left | Shotgun, 1 back | 6 | 0.29 | (12:25) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 3-T.Etienne pushed ob at BAL 33 for 6 yards (0-R.Smith). |
| NO9 | Q3 | 11:57 | 2&4 | Short right | Shotgun, 1 back | 0 | -0.74 | (11:57) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 3-T.Etienne to BAL 33 for no gain (14-K.Hamilton; 2-N.Wiggins). |
| NO9 | Q3 | 11:10 | 3&4 | Deep left | Shotgun, 1 back | 0 | -1.66 | (11:10) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete deep left to 12-C.Olave. |
| NO9 | Q3 | 11:05 | 4&4 | field goal | Under center | 0 | 1.78 | (11:05) 10-D.Carlson 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-17-R.Wright. |
| NO11 | Q3 | 03:19 | 1&10 | Play action | Under center, 1 back | -4 | -1.33 | (3:19) 6-T.Shough sacked at NO 22 for -4 yards (91-T.Hendrickson). |
| NO11 | Q3 | 02:32 | 2&14 | no play | Shotgun | 0 | -0.21 | (2:32) (Shotgun) PENALTY on NO-71-K.Banks, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at NO 22 - No Play. |
| NO11 | Q3 | 02:26 | 2&19 | Short left | Shotgun, 1 back | 0 | -0.76 | (2:26) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short left to 41-A.Kamara. |
| NO11 | Q3 | 02:20 | 3&19 | Dropback | Shotgun, 1 back | -8 | -1.42 | (2:20) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough sacked at NO 9 for -8 yards (15-M.Green). NO-71-K.Banks was injured during the play. |
| NO11 | Q3 | 01:50 | 4&27 | punt | Under center | 0 | -0.15 | (1:50) 17-R.Wright punts 40 yards to NO 49, Center-46-S.Daly, out of bounds. |
| NO13 | Q4 | 15:00 | 1&10 | Short left | Under center, 1 back | 8 | 0.49 | (15:00) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 18-B.Lance to NO 40 for 8 yards (44-M.Humphrey). |
| NO13 | Q4 | 14:18 | 2&2 | Run left tackle | Under center, 1 back | 2 | 0.07 | (14:18) 3-T.Etienne left tackle to NO 42 for 2 yards (94-J.Jenkins; 96-B.Washington). |
| NO13 | Q4 | 13:38 | 1&10 | Short middle | Shotgun, 1 back | 8 | 0.64 | (13:38) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short middle to 4-O.Delp to 50 for 8 yards (24-M.Starks). |
| NO13 | Q4 | 12:54 | 2&2 | Run left guard | Under center, 1 back | 6 | 0.24 | (12:54) 41-A.Kamara left guard to BAL 44 for 6 yards (0-R.Smith; 14-K.Hamilton). |
| NO13 | Q4 | 12:17 | 1&10 | Run left tackle | Under center, 1 back | 2 | -0.25 | (12:17) 41-A.Kamara left tackle to BAL 42 for 2 yards (93-C.Campbell; 32-T.Simpson). |
| NO13 | Q4 | 11:39 | 2&8 | Short right | Shotgun, 1 back | 3 | -0.29 | (11:39) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 12-C.Olave to BAL 39 for 3 yards (14-K.Hamilton). Baltimore challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field sta |
| NO13 | Q4 | 11:06 | 3&5 | Short left | Shotgun, empty | 12 | 1.91 | (11:06) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 12-C.Olave to BAL 27 for 12 yards (24-M.Starks). |
| NO13 | Q4 | 10:26 | 1&10 | Run left guard | Shotgun, 1 back | 6 | 0.21 | (10:26) (Shotgun) 3-T.Etienne left guard to BAL 21 for 6 yards (0-R.Smith). |
| NO13 | Q4 | 09:47 | 2&4 | Deep middle | Shotgun, 1 back | 21 | 2.60 | (9:47) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass deep middle to 12-C.Olave for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. |
| NO15 | Q4 | 08:06 | 1&10 | Run right tackle | Under center, 1 back | 0 | -0.37 | (8:06) 3-T.Etienne right tackle to NO 32 for no gain (96-B.Washington; 14-K.Hamilton). |
| NO15 | Q4 | 07:31 | 2&10 | Play action | Shotgun, 2 backs | 15 | 1.31 | (7:31) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 12-C.Olave to NO 47 for 15 yards (14-K.Hamilton; 2-N.Wiggins). |
| NO15 | Q4 | 06:49 | 1&10 | Short right | Shotgun, 1 back | 0 | -0.46 | (6:49) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short right to 14-D.Vele (98-T.Jones). |
| NO15 | Q4 | 06:46 | 2&10 | Run left tackle | Shotgun, 1 back | 4 | -0.39 | (6:46) (Shotgun) 3-T.Etienne left tackle to BAL 49 for 4 yards (14-K.Hamilton). |
| NO15 | Q4 | 06:06 | 3&6 | Short middle | Shotgun, 1 back | 5 | -0.38 | (6:06) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short middle to 14-D.Vele to BAL 44 for 5 yards (14-K.Hamilton). |
| NO15 | Q4 | 05:41 | 4&1 | Run middle | Under center, empty, no huddle | 1 | 1.66 | (5:41) (No Huddle) 6-T.Shough up the middle to BAL 43 for 1 yard (14-K.Hamilton). |
| NO15 | Q4 | 04:55 | 1&10 | Short right | Shotgun, 1 back | 7 | 0.39 | (4:55) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 81-K.Austin ran ob at BAL 36 for 7 yards. |
| NO15 | Q4 | 04:50 | 2&3 | Run right tackle | Under center, 1 back | 1 | -0.57 | (4:50) 41-A.Kamara right tackle to BAL 35 for 1 yard (94-J.Jenkins). |
| NO15 | Q4 | 04:13 | 3&2 | Short left | Shotgun, 1 back | 3 | 0.71 | (4:13) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 12-C.Olave to BAL 32 for 3 yards (44-M.Humphrey). |
| NO15 | Q4 | 03:29 | 1&10 | Run right tackle | Under center, 1 back | -4 | -1.20 | (3:29) 41-A.Kamara right tackle to BAL 36 for -4 yards (14-K.Hamilton). |
| NO15 | Q4 | 02:48 | 2&14 | Short left | Shotgun, 1 back | 6 | 0.33 | (2:48) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 14-D.Vele to BAL 30 for 6 yards (44-M.Humphrey). |
| NO15 | Q4 | 02:03 | 3&8 | Short right | Shotgun, 1 back | 25 | 3.44 | (2:03) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 83-J.Johnson to BAL 5 for 25 yards (21-J.Hawkins). PENALTY on BAL-91-T.Hendrickson, Roughing the Passer, 3 yards, enforced at BAL 5. |
| NO15 | Q4 | 01:54 | 1&2 | no play | Shotgun | 0 | -0.91 | (1:54) (Shotgun) PENALTY on NO-87-N.Fant, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at BAL 2 - No Play. |
| NO15 | Q4 | 01:54 | 1&7 | RPO | Shotgun, 2 backs | 0 | -0.49 | (1:54) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short left to 14-D.Vele. |
| NO15 | Q4 | 01:50 | 2&7 | Short left | Shotgun, 1 back | 6 | 0.71 | (1:50) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 83-J.Johnson to BAL 1 for 6 yards (24-M.Starks; 0-R.Smith). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was Upheld. The |
| NO15 | Q4 | 01:40 | 3&1 | Run middle | Under center, 2 backs | 0 | -1.82 | (1:40) 6-T.Shough up the middle to BAL 1 for no gain (14-K.Hamilton). |
| NO15 | Q4 | 01:32 | 4&1 | Run middle | Under center, 2 backs | 1 | 3.39 | (1:32) 6-T.Shough up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. |
| NO17 | Q4 | 00:13 | 1&10 | qb kneel | Under center | -1 | 0.00 | (:13) 6-T.Shough kneels to NO 8 for -1 yards. |