Week 3
Saints vs. LV
2026-09-27 · Caesars Superdome · Archived game model and play-by-play summary
Final
27-35
L 27-35
Model transparency
Archived game model transparency
Drive EPA, win probability timeline, and play explorer data are bundled outputs for a completed game.
Archived 2026
Game detail rollup · Week 3, 2026
Treat this output as archived context, not a current prediction.
Quick explanation
View data and model details
The warning above stays visible; detailed source, input, and limitation notes are tucked away for a cleaner fan dashboard.
Opponent comparison
Both sides are measured the same way from the bundled league profiles. A row stays pending when no profile matches the opponent.
Saints offense vs opponent defensehistorical · historical
Saints offense: -0.040
LV defense: -0.015
Advantage: opponent
Saints EPA per play on offense against the EPA per play this defense allowed across their own season.
Data window: 2026 season through Week 5 · 5 Saints games · Source: Bundled nflverse league team profiles
Saints defense vs opponent offensehistorical · historical
Saints defense: +0.089
LV offense: +0.019
Advantage: opponent
EPA per play the Saints defense allowed against what this offense produced. Lower is better for the Saints.
Data window: 2026 season through Week 5 · 5 Saints games · Source: Bundled nflverse league team profiles
Offensive success rate vs allowedhistorical · historical
Saints success rate: 43.6%
LV success allowed: 44.5%
Advantage: even
Share of Saints plays that stayed on schedule against the share this defense allowed to.
Data window: 2026 season through Week 5 · 5 Saints games · Source: Bundled nflverse league team profiles
Archived 2026
Archived game data: Week 3, 2026
Drive EPA, win probability, and play explorer views are archived model outputs for this completed game.
- Last updated:
- 2026-09-27
- Source:
- 2026 game model dataset
Drive-by-Drive EPA
Each bar captures the expected points added generated on every Saints possession.
Field Position Map
Drive start and end points plotted on a virtual field.
0
10
20
30
40
5050
60
70
80
90
100
Drive 1Punt · 3 plays · 0:53
Drive 3Touchdown · 13 plays · 6:45
Drive 5Punt · 3 plays · 1:56
Drive 7Touchdown · 10 plays · 3:52
Drive 10Touchdown · 12 plays · 6:50
Drive 11Touchdown · 2 plays · 0:47
Drive 13Punt · 5 plays · 1:19
Drive 15Turnover · 9 plays · 3:41
Drive 17Turnover · 3 plays · 1:33
Drive 19Turnover · 9 plays · 4:07
Drive 21Turnover · 3 plays · 0:45
Drives are mapped across the field from the Saints' goal line (0) to the opponent's end zone (100).
Win Probability Timeline
Quarter-by-quarter swing in the archived model win projection.
QB Play Quality Breakdown
Heuristic buckets classify each dropback by intent, accuracy, pressure response, and decision quality.
Accurate: 49% · Sustain: 47%
Explosive: 16% · Panic: 9% · Negative: 4%
Accuracy held up, generating catchable production all night.
Play Explorer
Filter by down, distance, route concept, and personnel to dig into the Saints play selection.
| Drive | Quarter | Clock | Down & Distance | Route | Alignment | Yards | EPA | Description |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO1 | Q1 | 14:56 | 1&10 | Run right guard | Under center, 1 back | 2 | -0.41 | (14:56) 3-T.Etienne right guard to NO 29 for 2 yards (97-T.Hemingway; 11-J.Chinn). |
| NO1 | Q1 | 14:24 | 2&8 | Short right | Shotgun, empty | 0 | -0.80 | (14:24) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short right [94-F.Fatukasi]. |
| NO1 | Q1 | 14:18 | 3&8 | Screen | Shotgun, 1 back | 0 | -1.54 | (14:18) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short right. |
| NO1 | Q1 | 14:14 | 4&8 | punt | Under center | 0 | 0.01 | (14:14) 17-R.Wright punts 47 yards to LV 24, Center-46-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 19-M.Benson. |
| NO3 | Q1 | 07:30 | 1&10 | Short right | Shotgun, 1 back | 6 | 0.33 | (7:30) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 83-J.Johnson to NO 27 for 6 yards (3-T.Johnson). |
| NO3 | Q1 | 07:04 | 2&4 | Run middle | Shotgun, 1 back, no huddle | 3 | 0.03 | (7:04) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-T.Etienne up the middle to NO 30 for 3 yards (7-Q.Walker). |
| NO3 | Q1 | 06:33 | 3&1 | Run middle | Shotgun, 2 backs | 2 | 0.52 | (6:33) (Shotgun) 3-T.Etienne up the middle to NO 32 for 2 yards (17-N.Dean). |
| NO3 | Q1 | 05:54 | 1&10 | Play action | Under center, 1 back | 36 | 2.07 | (5:54) 6-T.Shough scrambles right end ran ob at LV 32 for 36 yards (11-J.Chinn). |
| NO3 | Q1 | 05:18 | 1&10 | Run left guard | Under center, 2 backs | 4 | -0.11 | (5:18) 3-T.Etienne left guard to LV 28 for 4 yards (51-M.Koonce). |
| NO3 | Q1 | 04:40 | 2&6 | Deep left | Shotgun, 1 back | 0 | -0.70 | (4:40) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete deep left to 12-C.Olave. |
| NO3 | Q1 | 04:34 | 3&6 | Short middle | Shotgun, 1 back | 11 | 1.80 | (4:34) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short middle to 14-D.Vele to LV 17 for 11 yards (11-J.Chinn). |
| NO3 | Q1 | 03:56 | 1&10 | Run middle | Under center, 2 backs | 4 | -0.18 | (3:56) 3-T.Etienne up the middle to LV 13 for 4 yards (7-Q.Walker; 98-M.Crosby). |
| NO3 | Q1 | 03:14 | 2&6 | Play action | Under center, 1 back | 0 | -0.68 | (3:14) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 83-J.Johnson to LV 4 for 9 yards (3-T.Johnson). PENALTY on NO, Illegal Shift, 5 yards, enforced at LV 13 - No Play. |
| NO3 | Q1 | 02:53 | 2&11 | Deep right | Shotgun, empty | 0 | -0.77 | (2:53) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete deep right to 14-D.Vele [98-M.Crosby]. |
| NO3 | Q1 | 02:45 | 3&11 | Short left | Shotgun, 1 back | 12 | 2.31 | (2:45) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 12-C.Olave to LV 6 for 12 yards (35-H.Masses) [51-M.Koonce]. |
| NO3 | Q1 | 02:17 | 1&6 | Run right guard | Shotgun, 1 back | 5 | 0.46 | (2:17) (Shotgun) 43-C.Donaldson right guard to LV 1 for 5 yards (20-I.Pola-Mao; 7-Q.Walker). |
| NO3 | Q1 | 01:35 | 2&1 | Run middle | Shotgun, 1 back | -1 | -1.04 | (1:35) (Shotgun) 3-T.Etienne up the middle to LV 2 for -1 yards (97-T.Hemingway). |
| NO3 | Q1 | 00:54 | 3&2 | Short left | Shotgun, 1 back | 2 | 1.69 | (:54) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 83-J.Johnson for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. |
| NO5 | Q2 | 11:21 | 1&10 | Run middle | Under center, 2 backs | -3 | -1.10 | (11:21) 41-A.Kamara up the middle to NO 19 for -3 yards (17-N.Dean). |
| NO5 | Q2 | 10:45 | 2&13 | no play | Under center | 0 | -0.48 | (10:45) PENALTY on NO-51-C.Ruiz, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at NO 19 - No Play. |
| NO5 | Q2 | 10:26 | 2&18 | Short left | Shotgun, 1 back | 5 | -0.34 | (10:26) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 41-A.Kamara to NO 19 for 5 yards (35-H.Masses; 7-Q.Walker) [93-P.Johnson]. |
| NO5 | Q2 | 09:45 | 3&13 | Deep right | Shotgun, 1 back | 0 | -1.00 | (9:45) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete deep right to 18-B.Lance. |
| NO5 | Q2 | 09:39 | 4&13 | punt | Under center | 0 | -0.76 | (9:39) 17-R.Wright punts 47 yards to LV 34, Center-46-C.Adomitis. 19-M.Benson ran ob at LV 47 for 13 yards (38-J.Price). |
| NO7 | Q2 | 05:39 | 1&10 | Run left tackle | Under center, 1 back | 6 | 0.36 | (5:39) 3-T.Etienne left tackle to NO 34 for 6 yards (35-H.Masses; 7-Q.Walker). |
| NO7 | Q2 | 05:08 | 2&4 | Run right end | Under center, 2 backs | 3 | -0.05 | (5:08) 3-T.Etienne right end to NO 37 for 3 yards (17-N.Dean; 3-T.Johnson). |
| NO7 | Q2 | 04:33 | 3&1 | Run left guard | Shotgun, 1 back, no huddle | 4 | 0.47 | (4:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-T.Etienne left guard to NO 41 for 4 yards (20-I.Pola-Mao). |
| NO7 | Q2 | 04:06 | 1&10 | Short right | Shotgun, 2 backs, no huddle | 13 | 0.87 | (4:06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 12-C.Olave ran ob at LV 46 for 13 yards (17-N.Dean). |
| NO7 | Q2 | 03:32 | 1&10 | Play action | Shotgun, 1 back | 16 | 1.03 | (3:32) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass deep left to 12-C.Olave ran ob at LV 30 for 16 yards. |
| NO7 | Q2 | 03:15 | 1&10 | Short right | Shotgun, 1 back, no huddle | 9 | 0.63 | (3:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 87-N.Fant to LV 21 for 9 yards (5-E.Stokes). |
| NO7 | Q2 | 02:38 | 2&1 | Play action | Under center, 2 backs | 14 | 0.94 | (2:38) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 83-J.Johnson pushed ob at LV 7 for 14 yards (3-T.Johnson). |
| NO7 | Q2 | 02:18 | 1&7 | Run left end | Shotgun, 1 back, no huddle | 4 | 0.33 | (2:18) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-T.Etienne left end to LV 3 for 4 yards (35-H.Masses). |
| NO7 | Q2 | 02:00 | 2&3 | Play action | Shotgun, 1 back | 0 | -0.88 | (2:00) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short right to 12-C.Olave (98-M.Crosby). |
| NO7 | Q2 | 01:57 | 3&3 | Short left | Shotgun, 1 back | 3 | 2.18 | (1:57) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 87-N.Fant for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. |
| NO10 | Q3 | 13:30 | 1&10 | Short right | Under center, 1 back | 11 | 0.55 | (13:30) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 14-D.Vele pushed ob at NO 24 for 11 yards (11-J.Chinn). |
| NO10 | Q3 | 13:01 | 1&10 | Run right tackle | Shotgun, 1 back | 4 | -0.14 | (13:01) (Shotgun) 3-T.Etienne right tackle to NO 28 for 4 yards (17-N.Dean). |
| NO10 | Q3 | 12:23 | 2&6 | Play action | Shotgun, 1 back | 7 | 0.86 | (12:23) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 3-T.Etienne to NO 35 for 7 yards (17-N.Dean). |
| NO10 | Q3 | 11:38 | 1&10 | Run middle | Shotgun, 1 back | 9 | 0.78 | (11:38) (Shotgun) 41-A.Kamara up the middle to NO 44 for 9 yards (20-I.Pola-Mao). The ball spot was assisted by replay. |
| NO10 | Q3 | 11:08 | 2&1 | Run left guard | Shotgun, 1 back | 4 | 0.00 | (11:08) (Shotgun) 41-A.Kamara left guard to NO 48 for 4 yards (95-K.Paye; 97-T.Hemingway). |
| NO10 | Q3 | 10:21 | 1&10 | Short right | Shotgun, 2 backs | 6 | 0.13 | (10:21) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 3-T.Etienne to LV 46 for 6 yards (95-K.Paye; 69-A.Butler). |
| NO10 | Q3 | 09:48 | 2&4 | RPO | Shotgun, 1 back, no huddle | 6 | 0.55 | (9:48) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-T.Etienne up the middle to LV 40 for 6 yards (69-A.Butler; 5-E.Stokes). |
| NO10 | Q3 | 09:11 | 1&10 | Short left | Shotgun, 1 back | 4 | -0.20 | (9:11) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 5-K.Miller to LV 36 for 4 yards (17-N.Dean). |
| NO10 | Q3 | 08:37 | 2&6 | Short right | Shotgun, 1 back, no huddle | 12 | 1.32 | (8:37) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 83-J.Johnson to LV 24 for 12 yards (3-T.Johnson). |
| NO10 | Q3 | 08:01 | 1&10 | Short left | Shotgun, 1 back, no huddle | 17 | 0.91 | (8:01) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 14-D.Vele to LV 7 for 17 yards (11-J.Chinn). |
| NO10 | Q3 | 07:21 | 1&7 | Short right | Shotgun, 1 back, no huddle | 6 | 0.60 | (7:21) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 12-C.Olave to LV 1 for 6 yards (20-I.Pola-Mao). |
| NO10 | Q3 | 06:58 | 2&1 | no play | Under center, no huddle | 0 | 0.00 | (6:58) (No Huddle) PENALTY on LV-99-T.Booker, Neutral Zone Infraction, 0 yards, enforced at LV 1 - No Play. |
| NO10 | Q3 | 06:44 | 2&1 | Play action | Under center, 1 back | 1 | 0.63 | (6:44) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 83-J.Johnson for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN [98-M.Crosby]. |
| NO11 | Q3 | 06:33 | 1&10 | Run right tackle | Under center, 1 back | 16 | 1.01 | (6:33) 3-T.Etienne right tackle pushed ob at LV 16 for 16 yards (11-J.Chinn). |
| NO11 | Q3 | 05:54 | 1&10 | Play action | Under center, 2 backs | 16 | 1.79 | (5:54) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 87-N.Fant for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. |
| NO13 | Q3 | 03:20 | 1&10 | Run middle | Shotgun, 1 back | 5 | 0.05 | (3:20) (Shotgun) 5-K.Miller up the middle to NO 45 for 5 yards (69-A.Butler; 7-Q.Walker). |
| NO13 | Q3 | 03:01 | 2&5 | Short left | Shotgun, 1 back, no huddle | 12 | 0.90 | (3:01) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 12-C.Olave to LV 43 for 12 yards (35-H.Masses). |
| NO13 | Q3 | 02:23 | 1&10 | Short right | Shotgun, 1 back, no huddle | 0 | -0.53 | (2:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short right to 18-B.Lance. |
| NO13 | Q3 | 02:18 | 2&10 | Deep right | Under center, 2 backs | 0 | -0.86 | (2:18) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete deep right to 12-C.Olave. |
| NO13 | Q3 | 02:14 | 3&10 | Deep middle | Shotgun, empty | 0 | -1.78 | (2:14) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete deep middle to 14-D.Vele (3-T.Johnson). |
| NO13 | Q3 | 02:07 | 4&10 | no play | Under center | 0 | -0.42 | (2:07) (Punt formation) PENALTY on NO, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at LV 43 - No Play. |
| NO13 | Q3 | 02:07 | 4&15 | punt | Under center | 0 | 0.05 | (2:07) 17-R.Wright punts 38 yards to LV 10, Center-46-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 23-D.Laube. |
| NO15 | Q3 | 01:36 | 1&10 | Run right tackle | Under center, 1 back | 5 | -0.06 | (1:36) 41-A.Kamara right tackle to NO 44 for 5 yards (17-N.Dean). |
| NO15 | Q3 | 00:57 | 2&5 | Short left | Shotgun, 1 back | 0 | -0.90 | (:57) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short left to 12-C.Olave (17-N.Dean). |
| NO15 | Q3 | 00:53 | 3&5 | Short left | Shotgun, 1 back | 11 | 1.78 | (:53) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 12-C.Olave to LV 45 for 11 yards (35-H.Masses). |
| NO15 | Q3 | 00:16 | 1&10 | Run right guard | Under center, 1 back | 1 | -0.55 | (:16) 5-K.Miller right guard to LV 44 for 1 yard (3-T.Johnson). |
| NO15 | Q4 | 15:00 | 2&9 | Short left | Shotgun, 1 back | 0 | -0.84 | (15:00) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short left to 14-D.Vele. The incomplete pass was assisted by replay. |
| NO15 | Q4 | 14:57 | 3&9 | Screen | Shotgun, 1 back | 9 | 1.96 | (14:57) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 12-C.Olave pushed ob at LV 35 for 9 yards (20-I.Pola-Mao). |
| NO15 | Q4 | 14:19 | 1&10 | Play action | Under center, 2 backs | 5 | 0.07 | (14:19) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 87-N.Fant ran ob at LV 30 for 5 yards. |
| NO15 | Q4 | 13:45 | 2&5 | Run middle | Under center, 1 back | 1 | -0.52 | (13:45) 41-A.Kamara up the middle to LV 29 for 1 yard (3-T.Johnson). |
| NO15 | Q4 | 13:04 | 3&4 | Dropback | Shotgun, 1 back | -10 | -5.70 | (13:04) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough sacked at LV 39 for -10 yards (51-M.Koonce). FUMBLES (51-M.Koonce) [51-M.Koonce], touched at LV 39, RECOVERED by LV-98-M.Crosby at LV 45. |
| NO17 | Q4 | 09:15 | 1&10 | Run left guard | Under center, 1 back | 3 | -0.38 | (9:15) 5-K.Miller left guard to NO 30 for 3 yards (98-M.Crosby). |
| NO17 | Q4 | 08:41 | 2&7 | Short right | Shotgun, 1 back | 1 | -0.48 | (8:41) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 5-K.Miller to NO 31 for 1 yard (17-N.Dean). |
| NO17 | Q4 | 08:03 | 3&6 | Short left | Shotgun, 1 back | 0 | -6.54 | (8:03) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left intended for 18-B.Lance INTERCEPTED by 35-H.Masses [51-M.Koonce] at NO 43. 35-H.Masses to NO 8 for 35 yards (83-J.Johnson). FUMBLES (83-J.Johnson), touched |
| NO19 | Q4 | 06:17 | 1&10 | Run left guard | Under center, 1 back | 11 | 0.64 | (6:17) 41-A.Kamara left guard to NO 35 for 11 yards (17-N.Dean). |
| NO19 | Q4 | 05:44 | 1&10 | Run right end | Under center, 1 back | 3 | -0.23 | (5:44) 41-A.Kamara right end to NO 38 for 3 yards (7-Q.Walker; 95-K.Paye). |
| NO19 | Q4 | 05:09 | 2&7 | Run middle | Shotgun, 1 back | 6 | 0.41 | (5:09) (Shotgun) 41-A.Kamara up the middle to NO 44 for 6 yards (17-N.Dean). |
| NO19 | Q4 | 04:30 | 3&1 | Run right end | Shotgun, 2 backs | 5 | 0.70 | (4:30) (Shotgun) 5-K.Miller right end to NO 49 for 5 yards (11-J.Chinn). FUMBLES (11-J.Chinn), ball out of bounds at LV 47. |
| NO19 | Q4 | 03:52 | 1&10 | Short left | Shotgun, 1 back | 22 | 1.32 | (3:52) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 83-J.Johnson ran ob at LV 29 for 22 yards (20-I.Pola-Mao). |
| NO19 | Q4 | 03:43 | 1&10 | Short right | Shotgun, 1 back | 0 | -0.43 | (3:43) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short right to 5-K.Miller. |
| NO19 | Q4 | 03:38 | 2&10 | Short right | Shotgun, 1 back | 9 | 0.69 | (3:38) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 12-C.Olave to LV 20 for 9 yards (3-T.Johnson). |
| NO19 | Q4 | 03:01 | 3&1 | Run middle | Shotgun, 1 back, no huddle | 0 | -1.16 | (3:01) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 41-A.Kamara up the middle to LV 20 for no gain (51-M.Koonce). |
| NO19 | Q4 | 02:21 | 4&1 | Dropback | Shotgun, 1 back | -12 | -4.62 | (2:21) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough sacked at LV 30 for -10 yards (11-J.Chinn). FUMBLES (11-J.Chinn) [11-J.Chinn], RECOVERED by LV-3-T.Johnson at LV 32. Fumble Forced by 98-M.Crosby. |
| NO21 | Q4 | 01:38 | 1&10 | Dropback | Shotgun, empty | 0 | 0.09 | (1:38) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short middle intended for 83-J.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 97-T.Hemingway [98-M.Crosby] at NO 16. 97-T.Hemingway to NO 16 for no gain (6-T.Shough). PENALTY on LV-11-J.Chinn |
| NO21 | Q4 | 01:31 | 1&10 | Short right | Shotgun, 1 back | -4 | -0.64 | (1:31) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 83-J.Johnson to NO 21 for -4 yards (7-Q.Walker). |
| NO21 | Q4 | 01:08 | 2&14 | Deep right | Shotgun, 1 back, no huddle | 19 | 0.89 | (1:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass deep right to 12-C.Olave ran ob at NO 40 for 19 yards (3-T.Johnson). |
| NO21 | Q4 | 01:02 | 1&10 | Short right | Shotgun, 1 back | 0 | -3.71 | (1:02) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 83-J.Johnson to NO 41 for 1 yard (17-N.Dean). FUMBLES (17-N.Dean), touched at NO 40, RECOVERED by LV-5-E.Stokes at NO 35. |