Who Dat Stats

Week 4

Saints vs. ATL

2026-10-05 · Caesars Superdome · Archived game model and play-by-play summary

Final

24-45

L 24-45

Model transparency

Archived game model transparency

Drive EPA, win probability timeline, and play explorer data are bundled outputs for a completed game.

Historical output
Archived 2026

Game detail rollup · Week 4, 2026

Treat this output as archived context, not a current prediction.

Quick explanation

View data and model details

The warning above stays visible; detailed source, input, and limitation notes are tucked away for a cleaner fan dashboard.

Opponent comparison

Both sides are measured the same way from the bundled league profiles. A row stays pending when no profile matches the opponent.

Opponent: ATL
Saints offense vs opponent defensehistorical · historical

Saints offense: -0.040

ATL defense: -0.035

Advantage: even

Saints EPA per play on offense against the EPA per play this defense allowed across their own season.

Data window: 2026 season through Week 5 · 5 Saints games · Source: Bundled nflverse league team profiles

Saints defense vs opponent offensehistorical · historical

Saints defense: +0.089

ATL offense: -0.024

Advantage: opponent

EPA per play the Saints defense allowed against what this offense produced. Lower is better for the Saints.

Data window: 2026 season through Week 5 · 5 Saints games · Source: Bundled nflverse league team profiles

Offensive success rate vs allowedhistorical · historical

Saints success rate: 43.6%

ATL success allowed: 39.7%

Advantage: saints

Share of Saints plays that stayed on schedule against the share this defense allowed to.

Data window: 2026 season through Week 5 · 5 Saints games · Source: Bundled nflverse league team profiles

Archived 2026

Archived game data: Week 4, 2026

Drive EPA, win probability, and play explorer views are archived model outputs for this completed game.
Last updated:
2026-10-05
Source:
2026 game model dataset

Drive-by-Drive EPA

Each bar captures the expected points added generated on every Saints possession.

Field Position Map

Drive start and end points plotted on a virtual field.

0
10
20
30
40
5050
60
70
80
90
100
Drive 2
Drive 4
Drive 6
Drive 8
Drive 10
Drive 12
Drive 14
Drive 16
Drive 18
Drive 20

Drives are mapped across the field from the Saints' goal line (0) to the opponent's end zone (100).

Win Probability Timeline

Quarter-by-quarter swing in the archived model win projection.

QB Play Quality Breakdown

Heuristic buckets classify each dropback by intent, accuracy, pressure response, and decision quality.

Accurate: 35% · Sustain: 28%

Explosive: 26% · Panic: 7% · Negative: 2%

Shough kept the lid off the defense with an aggressive explosive-shot rate. Ball placement wavered, dragging down the catchable rate.

Play Explorer

Filter by down, distance, route concept, and personnel to dig into the Saints play selection.

DriveQuarterClockDown & DistanceRouteAlignmentYardsEPADescription
NO2Q113:271&10Short rightShotgun, 1 back0-0.61(13:27) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short right to 12-C.Olave (26-C.Henderson). ATL-26-C.Henderson was injured during the play.
NO2Q113:252&10Play actionUnder center, 1 back2-0.61(13:25) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 14-D.Vele ran ob at NO 29 for 2 yards [52-S.Ebukam].
NO2Q113:033&8Deep leftShotgun, 1 back0-1.54(13:03) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete deep left to 18-B.Lance [54-B.Dorlus]. ATL-55-Z.Smith was injured during the play. ** Injury Update: ATL-26-C.Henderson has returned to the game.
NO2Q112:574&8no playUnder center0-1.04(12:57) 17-R.Wright punts 52 yards to ATL 19, Center-46-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 17-Z.Branch. PENALTY on NO-46-C.Adomitis, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NO 29 - No Play.
NO2Q112:504&18puntUnder center0-0.84(12:50) 17-R.Wright punts 57 yards to ATL 24, Center-46-C.Adomitis. 17-Z.Branch to ATL 49 for 25 yards (4-O.Delp).
NO4Q110:191&10no playUnder center00.60(10:19) PENALTY on ATL-92-M.Smith, Encroachment, 5 yards, enforced at NO 13 - No Play.
NO4Q110:191&5Run left endUnder center, 1 back-2-0.94(10:19) 66-W.Sherman reported in as eligible. 5-K.Miller left end to NO 16 for -2 yards (29-S.Brown).
NO4Q109:402&7no playUnder center0-0.87(9:40) PENALTY on NO-4-O.Delp, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at NO 16 - No Play.
NO4Q109:192&12Play actionShotgun, 1 back232.54(9:19) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass deep right to 83-J.Johnson pushed ob at NO 34 for 23 yards (26-C.Henderson) [96-Z.Harrison].
NO4Q108:461&10Run right tackleUnder center, 2 backs4-0.16(8:46) 41-A.Kamara right tackle to NO 38 for 4 yards (0-D.Deablo).
NO4Q108:072&6Play actionUnder center, 2 backs50.30(8:07) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 41-A.Kamara to NO 43 for 5 yards (33-B.Bowman).
NO4Q107:313&1Run middleUnder center, 1 back20.51(7:31) 6-T.Shough up the middle to NO 45 for 2 yards (54-B.Dorlus).
NO4Q106:551&10ScreenUnder center, 2 backs171.01(6:55) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 41-A.Kamara pushed ob at ATL 38 for 17 yards (0-D.Deablo).
NO4Q106:201&10Run middleShotgun, 1 back2-0.46(6:20) (Shotgun) 41-A.Kamara up the middle to ATL 36 for 2 yards (56-H.Perkins).
NO4Q105:582&8Short rightShotgun, 1 back, no huddle0-0.79(5:58) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short right.
NO4Q105:523&8ScreenShotgun, 1 back2-1.26(5:52) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 83-J.Johnson to ATL 34 for 2 yards (3-J.Bates; 21-M.Hughes).
NO4Q105:084&6field goalUnder center0-3.40(5:08) 10-D.Carlson 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-C.Adomitis, Holder-17-R.Wright.
NO6Q102:521&10Run left guardUnder center, 1 back2-5.89(2:52) 5-K.Miller left guard to NO 23 for 3 yards (94-L.London). Atlanta challenged the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 5-K.Miller left guard to NO 23 for 3 yards (94-L.L
NO8Q100:441&10Play actionShotgun, 1 back442.28(:44) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass deep left to 12-C.Olave to ATL 10 for 44 yards (31-X.Watts) [22-Y.Abdullah].
NO8Q100:071&10Play actionShotgun, 1 back70.57(:07) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 18-B.Lance to ATL 3 for 7 yards (26-C.Henderson) [22-Y.Abdullah].
NO8Q215:002&3Run middleShotgun, 1 back31.12(15:00) (Shotgun) 41-A.Kamara up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
NO10Q208:541&10Run left tackleUnder center, 1 back4-0.17(8:54) 5-K.Miller left tackle to NO 33 for 4 yards (53-K.Daniels).
NO10Q208:122&6Deep leftShotgun, 1 back0-0.69(8:12) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete deep left to 14-D.Vele (29-S.Brown).
NO10Q208:053&6Deep rightShotgun, 1 back0-1.52(8:05) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete deep right to 12-C.Olave.
NO10Q208:004&6puntUnder center00.23(8:00) 17-R.Wright punts 53 yards to ATL 14, Center-46-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 17-Z.Branch.
NO12Q203:001&10Short leftShotgun, 1 back2-0.39(3:00) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 41-A.Kamara to NO 28 for 2 yards (0-D.Deablo).
NO12Q202:262&8Short leftShotgun, 1 back181.50(2:26) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 83-J.Johnson to NO 46 for 18 yards (31-X.Watts; 56-H.Perkins).
NO12Q202:001&10Play actionShotgun, 1 back1-0.45(2:00) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 83-J.Johnson pushed ob at NO 47 for 1 yard (31-X.Watts).
NO12Q201:552&9Short rightShotgun, 1 back0-0.56(1:55) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short right to 18-B.Lance [22-Y.Abdullah].
NO12Q201:513&9Short rightShotgun, 2 backs121.62(1:51) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 12-C.Olave ran ob at ATL 41 for 12 yards (21-M.Hughes).
NO12Q201:461&10DropbackShotgun, 1 back-7-0.91(1:46) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough sacked at ATL 48 for -7 yards (sack split by 31-X.Watts and 56-H.Perkins).
NO12Q201:222&17Short rightShotgun, 1 back, no huddle60.00(1:22) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 12-C.Olave to ATL 42 for 6 yards (26-C.Henderson).
NO12Q200:573&11Deep rightShotgun, 1 back, no huddle0-1.47(:57) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete deep right to 18-B.Lance.
NO12Q200:494&11no playUnder center0-0.21(:49) (Punt formation) PENALTY on NO, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at ATL 42 - No Play.
NO12Q200:494&16puntUnder center0-0.36(:49) 17-R.Wright punts 39 yards to ATL 8, Center-46-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 14-O.Zaccheaus.
NO14Q314:551&10Run right guardUnder center, 1 back4-0.15(14:55) 41-A.Kamara right guard to NO 37 for 4 yards (99-C.Thomas).
NO14Q314:182&6no playUnder center00.89(14:18) PENALTY on ATL-54-B.Dorlus, Neutral Zone Infraction, 5 yards, enforced at NO 37 - No Play.
NO14Q313:552&1Run left guardUnder center, 1 back2-0.09(13:55) 5-K.Miller left guard to NO 44 for 2 yards (95-G.Dexter; 99-C.Thomas).
NO14Q313:171&10Short rightUnder center, 1 back110.53(13:17) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 12-C.Olave to ATL 45 for 11 yards (26-C.Henderson).
NO14Q312:351&10Run left endUnder center, 1 back-1-0.90(12:35) 5-K.Miller left end to ATL 46 for -1 yards (92-M.Smith).
NO14Q311:592&11Play actionUnder center, 1 back70.20(11:59) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 41-A.Kamara pushed ob at ATL 39 for 7 yards (26-C.Henderson) [99-C.Thomas].
NO14Q311:253&4Short leftShotgun, 1 back91.57(11:25) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 83-J.Johnson to ATL 30 for 9 yards (31-X.Watts).
NO14Q310:451&10Deep leftShotgun, 1 back0-0.47(10:45) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete deep left to 41-A.Kamara.
NO14Q310:392&10Run middleShotgun, 1 back3-0.44(10:39) (Shotgun) 41-A.Kamara up the middle to ATL 27 for 3 yards (99-C.Thomas).
NO14Q309:593&7Short leftShotgun, 1 back101.76(9:59) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 12-C.Olave ran ob at ATL 17 for 10 yards (26-C.Henderson).
NO14Q309:291&10Play actionUnder center, 2 backs00.12(9:29) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short right to 83-J.Johnson. PENALTY on ATL-33-B.Bowman, Defensive Pass Interference, 2 yards, enforced at ATL 17 - No Play.
NO14Q309:251&10Run left endUnder center, 1 back-5-1.34(9:25) 19-B.Brown left end to ATL 20 for -5 yards (21-M.Hughes).
NO14Q308:492&15no playShotgun00.86(8:49) (Shotgun) PENALTY on ATL-92-M.Smith, Neutral Zone Infraction, 5 yards, enforced at ATL 20 - No Play.
NO14Q308:262&10Short leftShotgun, 1 back7-0.03(8:26) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 5-K.Miller to ATL 8 for 7 yards (56-H.Perkins).
NO14Q307:473&3Short middleShotgun, 1 back0-1.88(7:47) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short middle to 14-D.Vele (99-C.Thomas).
NO14Q307:404&3field goalUnder center00.06(7:40) 10-D.Carlson 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Adomitis, Holder-17-R.Wright.
NO16Q302:051&10Play actionShotgun, 1 back0-0.58(2:05) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete deep left to 82-T.Welch.
NO16Q301:572&10Play actionUnder center, 2 backs0-0.81(1:57) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short right to 5-K.Miller.
NO16Q301:523&10DropbackShotgun, 2 backs02.67(1:52) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete deep right to 18-B.Lance. PENALTY on ATL-12-Av.Terrell, Defensive Pass Interference, 25 yards, enforced at NO 32 - No Play.
NO16Q301:461&10Short rightShotgun, 1 back0-0.53(1:46) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short right to 41-A.Kamara (22-Y.Abdullah).
NO16Q301:412&10Short rightShotgun, 1 back0-0.87(1:41) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short right to 12-C.Olave.
NO16Q301:383&10Deep rightShotgun, 1 back0-1.77(1:38) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete deep right to 18-B.Lance (21-M.Hughes).
NO16Q301:334&10Deep leftShotgun, 1 back184.38(1:33) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass deep left to 14-D.Vele to ATL 25 for 18 yards (31-X.Watts).
NO16Q301:081&10DropbackShotgun, 1 back, no huddle0-1.21(1:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 14-D.Vele to ATL 20 for 5 yards (3-J.Bates). PENALTY on NO-75-T.Fuaga, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 25 - No Play.
NO16Q300:341&20DropbackShotgun, 1 back0-0.33(:34) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete deep left to 83-J.Johnson. PENALTY on NO-83-J.Johnson, Illegal Shift, 5 yards, enforced at ATL 35 - No Play.
NO16Q300:301&25Short leftUnder center, 1 back3-0.44(:30) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 5-K.Miller to ATL 37 for 3 yards (56-H.Perkins) [22-Y.Abdullah].
NO16Q415:002&22Short leftShotgun, 1 back4-0.39(15:00) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 41-A.Kamara pushed ob at ATL 33 for 4 yards (26-C.Henderson).
NO16Q414:283&18Deep rightShotgun, 1 back171.40(14:28) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass deep right to 14-D.Vele to ATL 16 for 17 yards (26-C.Henderson).
NO16Q413:594&1Run middleShotgun, 1 back, no huddle21.58(13:59) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 41-A.Kamara up the middle to ATL 14 for 2 yards (99-C.Thomas; 54-B.Dorlus).
NO16Q413:331&10Short rightShotgun, 1 back, no huddle0-0.49(13:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short right to 83-J.Johnson (56-H.Perkins).
NO16Q413:282&10Short leftShotgun, 1 back90.68(13:28) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 14-D.Vele to ATL 5 for 9 yards (21-M.Hughes).
NO16Q413:033&1Run middleShotgun, 1 back, no huddle51.59(13:03) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 41-A.Kamara up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
NO18Q409:451&10Short rightShotgun, 1 back0-0.65(9:45) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short right to 83-J.Johnson (3-J.Bates).
NO18Q409:392&10DropbackShotgun, 1 back3-0.46(9:39) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough scrambles right end ran ob at NO 29 for 3 yards (56-H.Perkins).
NO18Q409:023&7Short leftShotgun, 1 back6-0.61(9:02) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 83-J.Johnson to NO 35 for 6 yards (31-X.Watts).
NO18Q408:334&1no playShotgun, no huddle0-0.75(8:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) PENALTY on NO-72-A.Richards, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at NO 35 - No Play.
NO18Q408:334&6DropbackShotgun, 2 backs-9-3.65(8:33) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough sacked at NO 21 for -9 yards (52-S.Ebukam).
NO20Q406:471&10Run middleUnder center, 2 backs90.97(6:47) 43-C.Donaldson up the middle to NO 33 for 9 yards (53-K.Daniels).
NO20Q406:182&1Run middleUnder center, 1 back3-0.12(6:18) 43-C.Donaldson up the middle to NO 36 for 3 yards (95-G.Dexter; 99-C.Thomas).
NO20Q405:401&10Deep leftUnder center, 1 back0-0.51(5:40) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete deep left to 12-C.Olave (23-D.Hellams).
NO20Q405:332&10Run middleShotgun, 1 back6-0.18(5:33) (Shotgun) 43-C.Donaldson up the middle to NO 42 for 6 yards (96-Z.Harrison).
NO20Q404:533&4Short leftShotgun, 1 back51.31(4:53) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 14-D.Vele to NO 47 for 5 yards (26-C.Henderson).
NO20Q404:281&10Short rightShotgun, 1 back, no huddle-1-0.93(4:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 43-C.Donaldson to NO 46 for -1 yards (23-D.Hellams).
NO20Q403:472&11Run middleShotgun, 1 back4-0.18(3:47) (Shotgun) 5-K.Miller up the middle to 50 for 4 yards (31-X.Watts; 42-J.Woods).
NO20Q403:073&7Deep leftShotgun, 1 back0-1.56(3:07) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete deep left to 14-D.Vele.
NO20Q403:024&7Deep leftShotgun, 1 back234.02(3:02) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass deep left to 12-C.Olave to ATL 27 for 23 yards (33-B.Bowman) [52-S.Ebukam].
NO20Q402:311&10Short leftShotgun, 1 back, no huddle50.32(2:31) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 12-C.Olave to ATL 22 for 5 yards (56-H.Perkins).
NO20Q402:082&5Short middleShotgun, 1 back, no huddle60.55(2:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short middle to 43-C.Donaldson to ATL 16 for 6 yards (53-K.Daniels).
NO20Q402:001&10Short leftShotgun, 1 back50.14(2:00) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 12-C.Olave to ATL 11 for 5 yards (56-H.Perkins).
NO20Q401:232&5DropbackShotgun, 1 back01.22(1:23) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short left to 83-J.Johnson. PENALTY on ATL-29-S.Brown, Defensive Pass Interference, 8 yards, enforced at ATL 11 - No Play.
NO20Q401:191&3Short leftShotgun, 1 back30.93(1:19) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 14-D.Vele for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.