Week 4
Saints vs. ATL
2026-10-05 · Caesars Superdome · Archived game model and play-by-play summary
Final
24-45
L 24-45
Model transparency
Archived game model transparency
Drive EPA, win probability timeline, and play explorer data are bundled outputs for a completed game.
Game detail rollup · Week 4, 2026
Quick explanation
View data and model details
The warning above stays visible; detailed source, input, and limitation notes are tucked away for a cleaner fan dashboard.
Opponent comparison
Both sides are measured the same way from the bundled league profiles. A row stays pending when no profile matches the opponent.
Saints offense: -0.040
ATL defense: -0.035
Advantage: even
Saints EPA per play on offense against the EPA per play this defense allowed across their own season.
Data window: 2026 season through Week 5 · 5 Saints games · Source: Bundled nflverse league team profiles
Saints defense: +0.089
ATL offense: -0.024
Advantage: opponent
EPA per play the Saints defense allowed against what this offense produced. Lower is better for the Saints.
Data window: 2026 season through Week 5 · 5 Saints games · Source: Bundled nflverse league team profiles
Saints success rate: 43.6%
ATL success allowed: 39.7%
Advantage: saints
Share of Saints plays that stayed on schedule against the share this defense allowed to.
Data window: 2026 season through Week 5 · 5 Saints games · Source: Bundled nflverse league team profiles
Archived game data: Week 4, 2026
- Last updated:
- 2026-10-05
- Source:
- 2026 game model dataset
Drive-by-Drive EPA
Each bar captures the expected points added generated on every Saints possession.
Field Position Map
Drive start and end points plotted on a virtual field.
Drives are mapped across the field from the Saints' goal line (0) to the opponent's end zone (100).
Win Probability Timeline
Quarter-by-quarter swing in the archived model win projection.
QB Play Quality Breakdown
Heuristic buckets classify each dropback by intent, accuracy, pressure response, and decision quality.
Accurate: 35% · Sustain: 28%
Explosive: 26% · Panic: 7% · Negative: 2%
Shough kept the lid off the defense with an aggressive explosive-shot rate. Ball placement wavered, dragging down the catchable rate.
Play Explorer
Filter by down, distance, route concept, and personnel to dig into the Saints play selection.
| Drive | Quarter | Clock | Down & Distance | Route | Alignment | Yards | EPA | Description |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO2 | Q1 | 13:27 | 1&10 | Short right | Shotgun, 1 back | 0 | -0.61 | (13:27) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short right to 12-C.Olave (26-C.Henderson). ATL-26-C.Henderson was injured during the play. |
| NO2 | Q1 | 13:25 | 2&10 | Play action | Under center, 1 back | 2 | -0.61 | (13:25) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 14-D.Vele ran ob at NO 29 for 2 yards [52-S.Ebukam]. |
| NO2 | Q1 | 13:03 | 3&8 | Deep left | Shotgun, 1 back | 0 | -1.54 | (13:03) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete deep left to 18-B.Lance [54-B.Dorlus]. ATL-55-Z.Smith was injured during the play. ** Injury Update: ATL-26-C.Henderson has returned to the game. |
| NO2 | Q1 | 12:57 | 4&8 | no play | Under center | 0 | -1.04 | (12:57) 17-R.Wright punts 52 yards to ATL 19, Center-46-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 17-Z.Branch. PENALTY on NO-46-C.Adomitis, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NO 29 - No Play. |
| NO2 | Q1 | 12:50 | 4&18 | punt | Under center | 0 | -0.84 | (12:50) 17-R.Wright punts 57 yards to ATL 24, Center-46-C.Adomitis. 17-Z.Branch to ATL 49 for 25 yards (4-O.Delp). |
| NO4 | Q1 | 10:19 | 1&10 | no play | Under center | 0 | 0.60 | (10:19) PENALTY on ATL-92-M.Smith, Encroachment, 5 yards, enforced at NO 13 - No Play. |
| NO4 | Q1 | 10:19 | 1&5 | Run left end | Under center, 1 back | -2 | -0.94 | (10:19) 66-W.Sherman reported in as eligible. 5-K.Miller left end to NO 16 for -2 yards (29-S.Brown). |
| NO4 | Q1 | 09:40 | 2&7 | no play | Under center | 0 | -0.87 | (9:40) PENALTY on NO-4-O.Delp, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at NO 16 - No Play. |
| NO4 | Q1 | 09:19 | 2&12 | Play action | Shotgun, 1 back | 23 | 2.54 | (9:19) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass deep right to 83-J.Johnson pushed ob at NO 34 for 23 yards (26-C.Henderson) [96-Z.Harrison]. |
| NO4 | Q1 | 08:46 | 1&10 | Run right tackle | Under center, 2 backs | 4 | -0.16 | (8:46) 41-A.Kamara right tackle to NO 38 for 4 yards (0-D.Deablo). |
| NO4 | Q1 | 08:07 | 2&6 | Play action | Under center, 2 backs | 5 | 0.30 | (8:07) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 41-A.Kamara to NO 43 for 5 yards (33-B.Bowman). |
| NO4 | Q1 | 07:31 | 3&1 | Run middle | Under center, 1 back | 2 | 0.51 | (7:31) 6-T.Shough up the middle to NO 45 for 2 yards (54-B.Dorlus). |
| NO4 | Q1 | 06:55 | 1&10 | Screen | Under center, 2 backs | 17 | 1.01 | (6:55) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 41-A.Kamara pushed ob at ATL 38 for 17 yards (0-D.Deablo). |
| NO4 | Q1 | 06:20 | 1&10 | Run middle | Shotgun, 1 back | 2 | -0.46 | (6:20) (Shotgun) 41-A.Kamara up the middle to ATL 36 for 2 yards (56-H.Perkins). |
| NO4 | Q1 | 05:58 | 2&8 | Short right | Shotgun, 1 back, no huddle | 0 | -0.79 | (5:58) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short right. |
| NO4 | Q1 | 05:52 | 3&8 | Screen | Shotgun, 1 back | 2 | -1.26 | (5:52) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 83-J.Johnson to ATL 34 for 2 yards (3-J.Bates; 21-M.Hughes). |
| NO4 | Q1 | 05:08 | 4&6 | field goal | Under center | 0 | -3.40 | (5:08) 10-D.Carlson 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-C.Adomitis, Holder-17-R.Wright. |
| NO6 | Q1 | 02:52 | 1&10 | Run left guard | Under center, 1 back | 2 | -5.89 | (2:52) 5-K.Miller left guard to NO 23 for 3 yards (94-L.London). Atlanta challenged the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 5-K.Miller left guard to NO 23 for 3 yards (94-L.L |
| NO8 | Q1 | 00:44 | 1&10 | Play action | Shotgun, 1 back | 44 | 2.28 | (:44) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass deep left to 12-C.Olave to ATL 10 for 44 yards (31-X.Watts) [22-Y.Abdullah]. |
| NO8 | Q1 | 00:07 | 1&10 | Play action | Shotgun, 1 back | 7 | 0.57 | (:07) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 18-B.Lance to ATL 3 for 7 yards (26-C.Henderson) [22-Y.Abdullah]. |
| NO8 | Q2 | 15:00 | 2&3 | Run middle | Shotgun, 1 back | 3 | 1.12 | (15:00) (Shotgun) 41-A.Kamara up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. |
| NO10 | Q2 | 08:54 | 1&10 | Run left tackle | Under center, 1 back | 4 | -0.17 | (8:54) 5-K.Miller left tackle to NO 33 for 4 yards (53-K.Daniels). |
| NO10 | Q2 | 08:12 | 2&6 | Deep left | Shotgun, 1 back | 0 | -0.69 | (8:12) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete deep left to 14-D.Vele (29-S.Brown). |
| NO10 | Q2 | 08:05 | 3&6 | Deep right | Shotgun, 1 back | 0 | -1.52 | (8:05) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete deep right to 12-C.Olave. |
| NO10 | Q2 | 08:00 | 4&6 | punt | Under center | 0 | 0.23 | (8:00) 17-R.Wright punts 53 yards to ATL 14, Center-46-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 17-Z.Branch. |
| NO12 | Q2 | 03:00 | 1&10 | Short left | Shotgun, 1 back | 2 | -0.39 | (3:00) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 41-A.Kamara to NO 28 for 2 yards (0-D.Deablo). |
| NO12 | Q2 | 02:26 | 2&8 | Short left | Shotgun, 1 back | 18 | 1.50 | (2:26) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 83-J.Johnson to NO 46 for 18 yards (31-X.Watts; 56-H.Perkins). |
| NO12 | Q2 | 02:00 | 1&10 | Play action | Shotgun, 1 back | 1 | -0.45 | (2:00) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 83-J.Johnson pushed ob at NO 47 for 1 yard (31-X.Watts). |
| NO12 | Q2 | 01:55 | 2&9 | Short right | Shotgun, 1 back | 0 | -0.56 | (1:55) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short right to 18-B.Lance [22-Y.Abdullah]. |
| NO12 | Q2 | 01:51 | 3&9 | Short right | Shotgun, 2 backs | 12 | 1.62 | (1:51) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 12-C.Olave ran ob at ATL 41 for 12 yards (21-M.Hughes). |
| NO12 | Q2 | 01:46 | 1&10 | Dropback | Shotgun, 1 back | -7 | -0.91 | (1:46) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough sacked at ATL 48 for -7 yards (sack split by 31-X.Watts and 56-H.Perkins). |
| NO12 | Q2 | 01:22 | 2&17 | Short right | Shotgun, 1 back, no huddle | 6 | 0.00 | (1:22) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 12-C.Olave to ATL 42 for 6 yards (26-C.Henderson). |
| NO12 | Q2 | 00:57 | 3&11 | Deep right | Shotgun, 1 back, no huddle | 0 | -1.47 | (:57) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete deep right to 18-B.Lance. |
| NO12 | Q2 | 00:49 | 4&11 | no play | Under center | 0 | -0.21 | (:49) (Punt formation) PENALTY on NO, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at ATL 42 - No Play. |
| NO12 | Q2 | 00:49 | 4&16 | punt | Under center | 0 | -0.36 | (:49) 17-R.Wright punts 39 yards to ATL 8, Center-46-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 14-O.Zaccheaus. |
| NO14 | Q3 | 14:55 | 1&10 | Run right guard | Under center, 1 back | 4 | -0.15 | (14:55) 41-A.Kamara right guard to NO 37 for 4 yards (99-C.Thomas). |
| NO14 | Q3 | 14:18 | 2&6 | no play | Under center | 0 | 0.89 | (14:18) PENALTY on ATL-54-B.Dorlus, Neutral Zone Infraction, 5 yards, enforced at NO 37 - No Play. |
| NO14 | Q3 | 13:55 | 2&1 | Run left guard | Under center, 1 back | 2 | -0.09 | (13:55) 5-K.Miller left guard to NO 44 for 2 yards (95-G.Dexter; 99-C.Thomas). |
| NO14 | Q3 | 13:17 | 1&10 | Short right | Under center, 1 back | 11 | 0.53 | (13:17) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 12-C.Olave to ATL 45 for 11 yards (26-C.Henderson). |
| NO14 | Q3 | 12:35 | 1&10 | Run left end | Under center, 1 back | -1 | -0.90 | (12:35) 5-K.Miller left end to ATL 46 for -1 yards (92-M.Smith). |
| NO14 | Q3 | 11:59 | 2&11 | Play action | Under center, 1 back | 7 | 0.20 | (11:59) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 41-A.Kamara pushed ob at ATL 39 for 7 yards (26-C.Henderson) [99-C.Thomas]. |
| NO14 | Q3 | 11:25 | 3&4 | Short left | Shotgun, 1 back | 9 | 1.57 | (11:25) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 83-J.Johnson to ATL 30 for 9 yards (31-X.Watts). |
| NO14 | Q3 | 10:45 | 1&10 | Deep left | Shotgun, 1 back | 0 | -0.47 | (10:45) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete deep left to 41-A.Kamara. |
| NO14 | Q3 | 10:39 | 2&10 | Run middle | Shotgun, 1 back | 3 | -0.44 | (10:39) (Shotgun) 41-A.Kamara up the middle to ATL 27 for 3 yards (99-C.Thomas). |
| NO14 | Q3 | 09:59 | 3&7 | Short left | Shotgun, 1 back | 10 | 1.76 | (9:59) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 12-C.Olave ran ob at ATL 17 for 10 yards (26-C.Henderson). |
| NO14 | Q3 | 09:29 | 1&10 | Play action | Under center, 2 backs | 0 | 0.12 | (9:29) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short right to 83-J.Johnson. PENALTY on ATL-33-B.Bowman, Defensive Pass Interference, 2 yards, enforced at ATL 17 - No Play. |
| NO14 | Q3 | 09:25 | 1&10 | Run left end | Under center, 1 back | -5 | -1.34 | (9:25) 19-B.Brown left end to ATL 20 for -5 yards (21-M.Hughes). |
| NO14 | Q3 | 08:49 | 2&15 | no play | Shotgun | 0 | 0.86 | (8:49) (Shotgun) PENALTY on ATL-92-M.Smith, Neutral Zone Infraction, 5 yards, enforced at ATL 20 - No Play. |
| NO14 | Q3 | 08:26 | 2&10 | Short left | Shotgun, 1 back | 7 | -0.03 | (8:26) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 5-K.Miller to ATL 8 for 7 yards (56-H.Perkins). |
| NO14 | Q3 | 07:47 | 3&3 | Short middle | Shotgun, 1 back | 0 | -1.88 | (7:47) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short middle to 14-D.Vele (99-C.Thomas). |
| NO14 | Q3 | 07:40 | 4&3 | field goal | Under center | 0 | 0.06 | (7:40) 10-D.Carlson 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Adomitis, Holder-17-R.Wright. |
| NO16 | Q3 | 02:05 | 1&10 | Play action | Shotgun, 1 back | 0 | -0.58 | (2:05) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete deep left to 82-T.Welch. |
| NO16 | Q3 | 01:57 | 2&10 | Play action | Under center, 2 backs | 0 | -0.81 | (1:57) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short right to 5-K.Miller. |
| NO16 | Q3 | 01:52 | 3&10 | Dropback | Shotgun, 2 backs | 0 | 2.67 | (1:52) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete deep right to 18-B.Lance. PENALTY on ATL-12-Av.Terrell, Defensive Pass Interference, 25 yards, enforced at NO 32 - No Play. |
| NO16 | Q3 | 01:46 | 1&10 | Short right | Shotgun, 1 back | 0 | -0.53 | (1:46) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short right to 41-A.Kamara (22-Y.Abdullah). |
| NO16 | Q3 | 01:41 | 2&10 | Short right | Shotgun, 1 back | 0 | -0.87 | (1:41) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short right to 12-C.Olave. |
| NO16 | Q3 | 01:38 | 3&10 | Deep right | Shotgun, 1 back | 0 | -1.77 | (1:38) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete deep right to 18-B.Lance (21-M.Hughes). |
| NO16 | Q3 | 01:33 | 4&10 | Deep left | Shotgun, 1 back | 18 | 4.38 | (1:33) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass deep left to 14-D.Vele to ATL 25 for 18 yards (31-X.Watts). |
| NO16 | Q3 | 01:08 | 1&10 | Dropback | Shotgun, 1 back, no huddle | 0 | -1.21 | (1:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 14-D.Vele to ATL 20 for 5 yards (3-J.Bates). PENALTY on NO-75-T.Fuaga, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 25 - No Play. |
| NO16 | Q3 | 00:34 | 1&20 | Dropback | Shotgun, 1 back | 0 | -0.33 | (:34) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete deep left to 83-J.Johnson. PENALTY on NO-83-J.Johnson, Illegal Shift, 5 yards, enforced at ATL 35 - No Play. |
| NO16 | Q3 | 00:30 | 1&25 | Short left | Under center, 1 back | 3 | -0.44 | (:30) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 5-K.Miller to ATL 37 for 3 yards (56-H.Perkins) [22-Y.Abdullah]. |
| NO16 | Q4 | 15:00 | 2&22 | Short left | Shotgun, 1 back | 4 | -0.39 | (15:00) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 41-A.Kamara pushed ob at ATL 33 for 4 yards (26-C.Henderson). |
| NO16 | Q4 | 14:28 | 3&18 | Deep right | Shotgun, 1 back | 17 | 1.40 | (14:28) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass deep right to 14-D.Vele to ATL 16 for 17 yards (26-C.Henderson). |
| NO16 | Q4 | 13:59 | 4&1 | Run middle | Shotgun, 1 back, no huddle | 2 | 1.58 | (13:59) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 41-A.Kamara up the middle to ATL 14 for 2 yards (99-C.Thomas; 54-B.Dorlus). |
| NO16 | Q4 | 13:33 | 1&10 | Short right | Shotgun, 1 back, no huddle | 0 | -0.49 | (13:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short right to 83-J.Johnson (56-H.Perkins). |
| NO16 | Q4 | 13:28 | 2&10 | Short left | Shotgun, 1 back | 9 | 0.68 | (13:28) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 14-D.Vele to ATL 5 for 9 yards (21-M.Hughes). |
| NO16 | Q4 | 13:03 | 3&1 | Run middle | Shotgun, 1 back, no huddle | 5 | 1.59 | (13:03) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 41-A.Kamara up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. |
| NO18 | Q4 | 09:45 | 1&10 | Short right | Shotgun, 1 back | 0 | -0.65 | (9:45) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short right to 83-J.Johnson (3-J.Bates). |
| NO18 | Q4 | 09:39 | 2&10 | Dropback | Shotgun, 1 back | 3 | -0.46 | (9:39) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough scrambles right end ran ob at NO 29 for 3 yards (56-H.Perkins). |
| NO18 | Q4 | 09:02 | 3&7 | Short left | Shotgun, 1 back | 6 | -0.61 | (9:02) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 83-J.Johnson to NO 35 for 6 yards (31-X.Watts). |
| NO18 | Q4 | 08:33 | 4&1 | no play | Shotgun, no huddle | 0 | -0.75 | (8:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) PENALTY on NO-72-A.Richards, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at NO 35 - No Play. |
| NO18 | Q4 | 08:33 | 4&6 | Dropback | Shotgun, 2 backs | -9 | -3.65 | (8:33) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough sacked at NO 21 for -9 yards (52-S.Ebukam). |
| NO20 | Q4 | 06:47 | 1&10 | Run middle | Under center, 2 backs | 9 | 0.97 | (6:47) 43-C.Donaldson up the middle to NO 33 for 9 yards (53-K.Daniels). |
| NO20 | Q4 | 06:18 | 2&1 | Run middle | Under center, 1 back | 3 | -0.12 | (6:18) 43-C.Donaldson up the middle to NO 36 for 3 yards (95-G.Dexter; 99-C.Thomas). |
| NO20 | Q4 | 05:40 | 1&10 | Deep left | Under center, 1 back | 0 | -0.51 | (5:40) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete deep left to 12-C.Olave (23-D.Hellams). |
| NO20 | Q4 | 05:33 | 2&10 | Run middle | Shotgun, 1 back | 6 | -0.18 | (5:33) (Shotgun) 43-C.Donaldson up the middle to NO 42 for 6 yards (96-Z.Harrison). |
| NO20 | Q4 | 04:53 | 3&4 | Short left | Shotgun, 1 back | 5 | 1.31 | (4:53) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 14-D.Vele to NO 47 for 5 yards (26-C.Henderson). |
| NO20 | Q4 | 04:28 | 1&10 | Short right | Shotgun, 1 back, no huddle | -1 | -0.93 | (4:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 43-C.Donaldson to NO 46 for -1 yards (23-D.Hellams). |
| NO20 | Q4 | 03:47 | 2&11 | Run middle | Shotgun, 1 back | 4 | -0.18 | (3:47) (Shotgun) 5-K.Miller up the middle to 50 for 4 yards (31-X.Watts; 42-J.Woods). |
| NO20 | Q4 | 03:07 | 3&7 | Deep left | Shotgun, 1 back | 0 | -1.56 | (3:07) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete deep left to 14-D.Vele. |
| NO20 | Q4 | 03:02 | 4&7 | Deep left | Shotgun, 1 back | 23 | 4.02 | (3:02) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass deep left to 12-C.Olave to ATL 27 for 23 yards (33-B.Bowman) [52-S.Ebukam]. |
| NO20 | Q4 | 02:31 | 1&10 | Short left | Shotgun, 1 back, no huddle | 5 | 0.32 | (2:31) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 12-C.Olave to ATL 22 for 5 yards (56-H.Perkins). |
| NO20 | Q4 | 02:08 | 2&5 | Short middle | Shotgun, 1 back, no huddle | 6 | 0.55 | (2:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short middle to 43-C.Donaldson to ATL 16 for 6 yards (53-K.Daniels). |
| NO20 | Q4 | 02:00 | 1&10 | Short left | Shotgun, 1 back | 5 | 0.14 | (2:00) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 12-C.Olave to ATL 11 for 5 yards (56-H.Perkins). |
| NO20 | Q4 | 01:23 | 2&5 | Dropback | Shotgun, 1 back | 0 | 1.22 | (1:23) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short left to 83-J.Johnson. PENALTY on ATL-29-S.Brown, Defensive Pass Interference, 8 yards, enforced at ATL 11 - No Play. |
| NO20 | Q4 | 01:19 | 1&3 | Short left | Shotgun, 1 back | 3 | 0.93 | (1:19) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 14-D.Vele for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. |