Week 5

Saints vs. MIN

2026-10-11 · Caesars Superdome · Archived game model and play-by-play summary

Final

13-23

L 13-23

Model transparency

Archived game model transparency

Drive EPA, win probability timeline, and play explorer data are bundled outputs for a completed game.

Historical output

Archived 2026

Game detail rollup · Week 5, 2026

Treat this output as archived context, not a current prediction.

Quick explanation

View data and model details

The warning above stays visible; detailed source, input, and limitation notes are tucked away for a cleaner fan dashboard.

Opponent comparison

Both sides are measured the same way from the bundled league profiles. A row stays pending when no profile matches the opponent.

Opponent: MIN

Saints offense vs opponent defensehistorical · historical

Saints offense: -0.040

MIN defense: -0.235

Advantage: saints

Saints EPA per play on offense against the EPA per play this defense allowed across their own season.

Data window: 2026 season through Week 5 · 5 Saints games · Source: Bundled nflverse league team profiles

Saints defense vs opponent offensehistorical · historical

Saints defense: +0.089

MIN offense: -0.100

Advantage: opponent

EPA per play the Saints defense allowed against what this offense produced. Lower is better for the Saints.

Data window: 2026 season through Week 5 · 5 Saints games · Source: Bundled nflverse league team profiles

Offensive success rate vs allowedhistorical · historical

Saints success rate: 43.6%

MIN success allowed: 32.0%

Advantage: saints

Share of Saints plays that stayed on schedule against the share this defense allowed to.

Data window: 2026 season through Week 5 · 5 Saints games · Source: Bundled nflverse league team profiles

Archived 2026

Archived game data: Week 5, 2026

Drive EPA, win probability, and play explorer views are archived model outputs for this completed game.

Last updated:: 2026-10-11
Source:: 2026 game model dataset

Drive-by-Drive EPA

Each bar captures the expected points added generated on every Saints possession.

Field Position Map

Drive start and end points plotted on a virtual field.

5050

100

Drive 2Punt · 3 plays · 1:27

Drive 4Touchdown · 15 plays · 7:18

Drive 6Punt · 3 plays · 1:26

Drive 8Punt · 3 plays · 1:09

Drive 11Turnover · 6 plays · 4:31

Drive 14Punt · 3 plays · 1:17

Drive 16Turnover on downs · 7 plays · 2:04

Drive 18Turnover · 3 plays · 1:04

Drives are mapped across the field from the Saints' goal line (0) to the opponent's end zone (100).

Win Probability Timeline

Quarter-by-quarter swing in the archived model win projection.

QB Play Quality Breakdown

Heuristic buckets classify each dropback by intent, accuracy, pressure response, and decision quality.

Accurate: 31% · Sustain: 23%

Explosive: 8% · Panic: 12% · Negative: 12%

The Saints dialed back downfield shots, leaning on shorter rhythm concepts. Ball placement wavered, dragging down the catchable rate. Heavy pressure created several panic throws that stalled drives. Risk management slipped, with multiple negative decisions showing up on tape.

Play Explorer

Filter by down, distance, route concept, and personnel to dig into the Saints play selection.

DownDistancePlay conceptAlignment

Drive	Quarter	Clock	Down & Distance	Route	Alignment	Yards	EPA	Description
NO2	Q1	08:59	1&10	Short right	Shotgun, 1 back	-5	-1.54	(8:59) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 41-A.Kamara to NO 22 for -5 yards (43-A.Van Ginkel) [51-B.Cashman].
NO2	Q1	08:27	2&15	Run left tackle	Under center, 1 back	6	0.16	(8:27) 41-A.Kamara left tackle to NO 28 for 6 yards (2-I.Rodgers).
NO2	Q1	07:53	3&9	Deep left	Shotgun, 1 back	0	-1.52	(7:53) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete deep left to 14-D.Vele.
NO2	Q1	07:48	4&9	punt	Under center	0	-0.23	(7:48) 17-R.Wright punts 56 yards to MIN 16, Center-46-C.Adomitis. 4-M.Price pushed ob at MIN 30 for 14 yards (44-I.Stalbird).
NO4	Q1	00:41	1&10	Run left guard	Under center, 2 backs	3	-0.41	(:41) 5-K.Miller left guard to NO 37 for 3 yards (55-E.Wilson; 50-L.Rodriguez).
NO4	Q1	00:04	2&7	Play action	Under center, 2 backs	14	1.20	(:04) 6-T.Shough pass short middle to 12-C.Olave to MIN 49 for 14 yards (44-J.Metellus).
NO4	Q2	15:00	1&10	no play	Under center	0	-0.42	(15:00) PENALTY on NO-87-N.Fant, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at MIN 49 - No Play.
NO4	Q2	15:00	1&15	Run middle	Under center, 2 backs	7	-0.24	(15:00) 43-C.Donaldson up the middle to MIN 47 for 7 yards (61-J.Redmond; 51-B.Cashman).
NO4	Q2	14:25	2&8	Run left tackle	Shotgun, 1 back	4	-0.25	(14:25) (Shotgun) 41-A.Kamara left tackle to MIN 43 for 4 yards (50-L.Rodriguez; 15-D.Turner).
NO4	Q2	13:45	3&4	Run right guard	Under center, 1 back	2	-1.40	(13:45) 43-C.Donaldson right guard to MIN 41 for 2 yards (51-B.Cashman; 43-A.Van Ginkel).
NO4	Q2	13:01	4&2	Short right	Shotgun, 1 back	5	2.67	(13:01) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 12-C.Olave to MIN 36 for 5 yards (51-B.Cashman).
NO4	Q2	12:36	1&10	Short middle	Shotgun, 1 back, no huddle	0	-0.50	(12:36) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short middle to 12-C.Olave (22-H.Smith).
NO4	Q2	12:31	2&10	Short right	Shotgun, 1 back	-1	-1.23	(12:31) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 41-A.Kamara pushed ob at MIN 37 for -1 yards (7-B.Murphy).
NO4	Q2	11:58	3&11	Short left	Shotgun, 1 back	10	0.57	(11:58) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 14-D.Vele to MIN 27 for 10 yards (51-B.Cashman).
NO4	Q2	11:13	4&1	Short left	Shotgun, 1 back	4	1.78	(11:13) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 14-D.Vele to MIN 23 for 4 yards (23-J.Pierre).
NO4	Q2	10:38	1&10	Run right guard	Under center, 1 back	9	0.75	(10:38) 5-K.Miller right guard to MIN 14 for 9 yards (44-J.Metellus).
NO4	Q2	10:13	2&1	Run left tackle	Under center, 1 back, no huddle	7	0.20	(10:13) (No Huddle) 5-K.Miller left tackle to MIN 7 for 7 yards (26-T.Jackson).
NO4	Q2	09:31	1&7	Run right guard	Shotgun, 1 back	6	0.67	(9:31) (Shotgun) 5-K.Miller right guard to MIN 1 for 6 yards (44-J.Metellus).
NO4	Q2	09:04	2&1	Run middle	Shotgun, 1 back, no huddle	-1	-1.10	(9:04) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-K.Miller up the middle to MIN 2 for -1 yards (50-L.Rodriguez).
NO4	Q2	08:26	3&2	Run middle	Shotgun, 1 back	2	1.96	(8:26) (Shotgun) 5-K.Miller up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
NO6	Q2	06:07	1&10	Run middle	Under center, 1 back	-2	-0.98	(6:07) 5-K.Miller up the middle to NO 19 for -2 yards (61-J.Redmond).
NO6	Q2	05:27	2&12	Short right	Shotgun, 1 back	7	0.11	(5:27) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 87-N.Fant ran ob at NO 26 for 7 yards (51-B.Cashman; 2-I.Rodgers).
NO6	Q2	05:03	3&5	Short left	Shotgun, 1 back, no huddle	0	-1.23	(5:03) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short left to 14-D.Vele (2-I.Rodgers).
NO6	Q2	04:57	4&5	punt	Under center	0	-1.80	(4:57) 17-R.Wright punts 64 yards to MIN 10, Center-46-C.Adomitis. 4-M.Price pushed ob at NO 47 for 43 yards (31-J.Howden).
NO8	Q2	02:58	1&10	Run middle	Under center, 2 backs	1	-0.30	(2:58) 43-C.Donaldson up the middle to NO 14 for 1 yard (44-J.Metellus; 95-C.Banks).
NO8	Q2	02:21	2&9	RPO	Shotgun, 1 back	3	-0.35	(2:21) (Shotgun) 5-K.Miller right guard to NO 17 for 3 yards (95-C.Banks).
NO8	Q2	02:00	3&6	no play	Shotgun	0	-0.22	(2:00) (Shotgun) PENALTY on NO-12-C.Olave, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at NO 17 - No Play.
NO8	Q2	02:00	3&11	Short right	Shotgun, 1 back	3	-0.77	(2:00) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 83-J.Johnson ran ob at NO 15 for 3 yards.
NO8	Q2	01:56	4&8	punt	Under center	0	-0.33	(1:56) 17-R.Wright punts 54 yards to MIN 31, Center-46-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 4-M.Price.
NO11	Q3	12:00	1&10	Short left	Under center, 1 back	16	0.93	(12:00) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 12-C.Olave to NO 43 for 16 yards (26-T.Jackson).
NO11	Q3	11:28	1&10	Run right guard	Under center, 1 back	4	-0.19	(11:28) 5-K.Miller right guard to NO 47 for 4 yards (44-J.Metellus).
NO11	Q3	10:51	2&6	Run middle	Shotgun, 1 back	3	-0.43	(10:51) (Shotgun) 43-C.Donaldson up the middle to 50 for 3 yards (61-J.Redmond).
NO11	Q3	10:11	3&3	Short right	Shotgun, 1 back	4	1.18	(10:11) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 83-J.Johnson to MIN 46 for 4 yards (7-B.Murphy).
NO11	Q3	09:31	1&10	Run right end	Under center, 2 backs	-1	-0.84	(9:31) 5-K.Miller right end to MIN 47 for -1 yards (51-B.Cashman).
NO11	Q3	08:38	2&11	Dropback	Shotgun, 1 back	0	-0.61	(8:38) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short middle to 14-D.Vele to MIN 35 for 12 yards (22-H.Smith). PENALTY on NO-43-C.Donaldson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIN 47 - No Play.
NO11	Q3	08:07	2&21	no play	Shotgun	0	-0.43	(8:07) (Shotgun) PENALTY on NO-76-D.Edwards, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at NO 43 - No Play.
NO11	Q3	07:45	2&26	Short right	Shotgun, 1 back	0	-5.04	(7:45) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right intended for 18-B.Lance INTERCEPTED by 7-B.Murphy at MIN 49. 7-B.Murphy to NO 37 for 14 yards (6-T.Shough). Penalty on NO-41-A.Kamara, Offensive Holding, d
NO14	Q4	14:02	1&10	Run left guard	Under center, 1 back	2	-0.41	(14:02) 41-A.Kamara left guard to NO 29 for 2 yards (51-B.Cashman).
NO14	Q4	13:28	2&8	Run	Under center, 1 back	0	-1.16	(13:28) 5-K.Miller up the middle to NO 42 for 13 yards (26-T.Jackson). PENALTY on NO-87-N.Fant, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NO 29 - No Play.
NO14	Q4	13:14	2&18	Short left	Shotgun, 1 back	0	-0.87	(13:14) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short left to 18-B.Lance.
NO14	Q4	13:07	3&18	Short left	Shotgun, 1 back	0	-1.12	(13:07) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short left to 18-B.Lance.
NO14	Q4	13:04	4&18	no play	Under center	0	-0.45	(13:04) (Punt formation) PENALTY on NO-46-C.Adomitis, False Start, 6 yards, enforced at NO 19 - No Play.
NO14	Q4	13:04	4&24	punt	Under center	0	0.79	(13:04) 17-R.Wright punts 55 yards to MIN 32, Center-46-C.Adomitis, downed by NO-44-I.Stalbird.
NO16	Q4	06:56	1&10	Short middle	Shotgun, 1 back	11	0.55	(6:56) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short middle to 12-C.Olave to NO 41 for 11 yards (26-T.Jackson).
NO16	Q4	06:37	1&10	Short left	Shotgun, 1 back, no huddle	3	-0.24	(6:37) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 14-D.Vele ran ob at NO 44 for 3 yards (23-J.Pierre).
NO16	Q4	06:05	2&7	Short left	Shotgun, 1 back	9	0.96	(6:05) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 14-D.Vele to MIN 47 for 9 yards (23-J.Pierre).
NO16	Q4	05:39	1&10	Short left	Shotgun, 1 back, no huddle	3	-0.29	(5:39) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 83-J.Johnson pushed ob at MIN 44 for 3 yards (51-B.Cashman).
NO16	Q4	05:13	2&7	Short middle	Shotgun, 1 back, no huddle	0	-0.66	(5:13) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short middle to 83-J.Johnson [55-E.Wilson].
NO16	Q4	05:09	3&7	Short right	Shotgun, 1 back	0	-1.60	(5:09) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short right [50-L.Rodriguez]. Penalty on NO, Illegal Shift, declined.
NO16	Q4	05:05	4&7	Short right	Shotgun, 1 back	6	-2.17	(5:05) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 83-J.Johnson to MIN 38 for 6 yards (7-B.Murphy).
NO18	Q4	03:53	1&10	Dropback	Shotgun, 1 back	-9	-1.36	(3:53) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough sacked at NO 11 for -9 yards (43-A.Van Ginkel).
NO18	Q4	03:27	2&19	Short middle	Shotgun, 1 back, no huddle	7	0.08	(3:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short middle to 43-C.Donaldson to NO 18 for 7 yards (51-B.Cashman; 55-E.Wilson).
NO18	Q4	02:56	3&12	Deep left	Shotgun, 1 back, no huddle	0	-1.82	(2:56) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass deep left intended for 12-C.Olave INTERCEPTED by 7-B.Murphy at MIN 46. 7-B.Murphy pushed ob at MIN 46 for no gain (12-C.Olave).