Saints weekly intelligence — 2026, Week 6

Executive summary

Week 6 of the 2026 season. The Saints went 1-4 across 5 games, at a net efficiency of −3.2 points per game, on −0.040 EPA per play offensively, and +0.089 allowed. Next: Saints at New York Giants · Sunday, October 18 · 1:00 PM ET. The measured matchup favours the opponent at 34.4% win probability.

What matters most

• Offensive EPA per play: +0.077 before the last 3 games, −0.160 across them — worse by 0.237 EPA.
• Offensive success rate: 44.3% before the last 3 games, 41.7% across them — worse by 2.6 percentage points.
• Bryce Lance — EPA per play moved from +0.642 to −1.995 across the last 3 games.
• Juwan Johnson — EPA per play moved from +0.947 to −0.014 across the last 3 games.
• Concern — Success rate allowed: 50.3% · 31st of 32
• Week 6 at New York Giants: a 5.4-point Saints loss, 34.4% win probability, market line 1.5.

Team performance

• Offensive EPA per play: −0.040 (23rd of 32) — −0.237 EPA on recent form
• Defensive EPA per play allowed: +0.089 (27th of 32) — −0.116 EPA on recent form
• Offensive success rate: 43.6% (15th of 32) — −2.6 pts on recent form

What changed

• Offensive EPA per play — +0.077 before the last 3 games, −0.160 across them — worse by 0.237 EPA.
• Offensive success rate — 44.3% before the last 3 games, 41.7% across them — worse by 2.6 percentage points.
• Defensive EPA per play allowed — +0.036 before the last 3 games, +0.152 across them — worse by 0.116 EPA.
• Success rate allowed — 53.4% before the last 3 games, 49.6% across them — better by 3.8 percentage points.

Trending players

• Bryce Lance — EPA per play moved from +0.642 to −1.995 across the last 3 games.
• Juwan Johnson — EPA per play moved from +0.947 to −0.014 across the last 3 games.
• Devaughn Vele — EPA per play moved from +0.657 to +0.158 across the last 3 games.
• Danny Stutsman — Snap share moved from 18.5% to 83.3% over the last 3 games.
• Colby Wooden — Snap share moved from 25.5% to 45.7% over the last 3 games.

Strengths

• Red-zone touchdown rate — 77.8% · 4th of 32
• Third-down conversion — 45.8% · 6th of 32

Concerns

• Success rate allowed — 50.3% · 31st of 32
• EPA per carry allowed — −0.003 · 31st of 32
• Third-down conversion allowed — 50.0% · 29th of 32
• Giveaway rate — 2.9% · 28th of 32

Looking ahead

• Week 6 at New York Giants — a 5.4-point Saints loss, 34.4% win probability, market line 1.5.
• Edge — Saints red zone offence vs New York Giants defence — Saints touchdown rate inside the 20 77.8%, 4th of 32; Touchdown rate allowed inside the 20 71.4%, 23rd of 32.
• Risk — Saints third down defence vs New York Giants offence — Saints conversion rate allowed 50.0%, 29th of 32; Their conversion rate 44.9%, 8th of 32.
• Risk — Saints turnovers offence vs New York Giants defence — Saints giveaways 2.9 per 100, 28th of 32; Their takeaways 2.3 per 100, 8th of 32.

Where this came from

Composed from 3 published reports: Saints team analytics — 2026 season through Week 5; Saints player trends — 2026 season through Week 5; Matchup preview — Week 6 at New York Giants. Nothing here is measured twice — every figure is the one its own report published, over 2026 season through Week 5.