Saints weekly intelligence — 2026, Week 7

Week 7 of the 2026 season. The Saints went 2-4 across 6 games, at a net efficiency of −2.1 points per game, on −0.043 EPA per play offensively, and +0.071 allowed. Next: Saints vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Sunday, October 25 · 9:30 AM ET. The measured matchup favours the opponent at 43.6% win probability.

Generated: just now
Data window: 2026 season through Week 6
Season: 2026, Week 7
Source refreshed: 3 hours ago
Confidence: medium
Generator: v2

Offensive EPA per play: −0.043; −0.183 EPA · 20th of 32
Defensive EPA per play allowed: +0.071; −0.029 EPA · 27th of 32
Offensive success rate: 41.9%; −12.6 pts · 20th of 32
Projected margin: −2.2
Win probability: 43.6%

Offensive EPA per play

Weeks 1–6 · higher is better

Defensive EPA per play allowed

Weeks 1–6 · lower is better

Offensive success rate

Weeks 1–6 · higher is better

Key takeaways

Offensive EPA per play: +0.028 before the last 3 games, −0.155 across them — worse by 0.183 EPA.
Offensive success rate: 47.6% before the last 3 games, 35.0% across them — worse by 12.6 percentage points.
Alvin Kamara — EPA per play moved from −0.323 to −0.088 across the last 3 games.
Bryce Lance — EPA per play moved from +0.642 to −1.995 across the last 3 games.
Concern — Success rate allowed: 49.5% · 31st of 32
Week 7 vs Pittsburgh Steelers: a 2.2-point Saints loss, 43.6% win probability.

What changed

Offensive EPA per play — +0.028 before the last 3 games, −0.155 across them — worse by 0.183 EPA.
Offensive success rate — 47.6% before the last 3 games, 35.0% across them — worse by 12.6 percentage points.
Defensive EPA per play allowed — +0.073 before the last 3 games, +0.101 across them — worse by 0.029 EPA.

Trending players

Alvin Kamara — EPA per play moved from −0.323 to −0.088 across the last 3 games.
Bryce Lance — EPA per play moved from +0.642 to −1.995 across the last 3 games.
Juwan Johnson — EPA per play moved from +0.947 to −0.014 across the last 3 games.
Devaughn Vele — EPA per play moved from +0.657 to +0.158 across the last 3 games.
Danny Stutsman — Snap share moved from 18.5% to 83.3% over the last 3 games.
Colby Wooden — Snap share moved from 25.5% to 45.7% over the last 3 games.

Strengths

Red-zone touchdown rate — 81.0% · 2nd of 32
Sack or hit allowed — 14.5% · 12th of 32
Third-down conversion — 42.5% · 10th of 32

Concerns

Success rate allowed — 49.5% · 31st of 32
EPA per carry allowed — −0.003 · 32nd of 32
Third-down conversion allowed — 47.1% · 29th of 32
Explosive rate allowed — 13.6% · 26th of 32

Looking ahead

Week 7 vs Pittsburgh Steelers — a 2.2-point Saints loss, 43.6% win probability.
Risk — Saints rushing defence vs Pittsburgh Steelers offence — Saints EPA per carry allowed −0.003, 32nd of 32; EPA per carry +0.028, 5th of 32.
Risk — Saints turnovers offence vs Pittsburgh Steelers defence — Saints giveaways 2.6 per 100, 24th of 32; Their takeaways 2.4 per 100, 7th of 32.

Executive summary

What matters most

Offensive EPA per play: +0.028 before the last 3 games, −0.155 across them — worse by 0.183 EPA.
Offensive success rate: 47.6% before the last 3 games, 35.0% across them — worse by 12.6 percentage points.
Alvin Kamara — EPA per play moved from −0.323 to −0.088 across the last 3 games.
Bryce Lance — EPA per play moved from +0.642 to −1.995 across the last 3 games.
Concern — Success rate allowed: 49.5% · 31st of 32
Week 7 vs Pittsburgh Steelers: a 2.2-point Saints loss, 43.6% win probability.

Team performance

Offensive EPA per play: −0.043 (20th of 32) — −0.183 EPA on recent form
Defensive EPA per play allowed: +0.071 (27th of 32) — −0.029 EPA on recent form
Offensive success rate: 41.9% (20th of 32) — −12.6 pts on recent form

What changed

Offensive EPA per play — +0.028 before the last 3 games, −0.155 across them — worse by 0.183 EPA.
Offensive success rate — 47.6% before the last 3 games, 35.0% across them — worse by 12.6 percentage points.
Defensive EPA per play allowed — +0.073 before the last 3 games, +0.101 across them — worse by 0.029 EPA.

Trending players

Alvin Kamara — EPA per play moved from −0.323 to −0.088 across the last 3 games.
Bryce Lance — EPA per play moved from +0.642 to −1.995 across the last 3 games.
Juwan Johnson — EPA per play moved from +0.947 to −0.014 across the last 3 games.
Devaughn Vele — EPA per play moved from +0.657 to +0.158 across the last 3 games.
Danny Stutsman — Snap share moved from 18.5% to 83.3% over the last 3 games.
Colby Wooden — Snap share moved from 25.5% to 45.7% over the last 3 games.

Strengths

Red-zone touchdown rate — 81.0% · 2nd of 32
Sack or hit allowed — 14.5% · 12th of 32
Third-down conversion — 42.5% · 10th of 32

Concerns

Success rate allowed — 49.5% · 31st of 32
EPA per carry allowed — −0.003 · 32nd of 32
Third-down conversion allowed — 47.1% · 29th of 32
Explosive rate allowed — 13.6% · 26th of 32

Looking ahead

Week 7 vs Pittsburgh Steelers — a 2.2-point Saints loss, 43.6% win probability.
Risk — Saints rushing defence vs Pittsburgh Steelers offence — Saints EPA per carry allowed −0.003, 32nd of 32; EPA per carry +0.028, 5th of 32.
Risk — Saints turnovers offence vs Pittsburgh Steelers defence — Saints giveaways 2.6 per 100, 24th of 32; Their takeaways 2.4 per 100, 7th of 32.

Where this came from

Composed from 3 published reports: Saints team analytics — 2026 season through Week 6; Saints player trends — 2026 season through Week 6; Matchup preview — Week 7 vs Pittsburgh Steelers. Nothing here is measured twice — every figure is the one its own report published, over 2026 season through Week 6.