Saints weekly briefing — 2026 Week 6 · Week 7 preview

Week 6 at New York Giants: the Saints won 34-27.

Evidence:Game page

Record through Week 6: 2-4.

Compared: All 6 completed regular-season games.

Evidence:Team dashboard

Offensive EPA per play: +0.028 in Weeks 1–3, −0.155 in Weeks 4–6 — worse by 0.183 EPA.

Compared: Mean per game, Weeks 4–6 (3 games) against Weeks 1–3 (3 games). Small sample: 3 games compared with the 3 before them.

Evidence:Team dashboard

Offensive success rate: 47.6% in Weeks 1–3, 35.0% in Weeks 4–6 — worse by 12.6 percentage points.

Compared: Mean per game, Weeks 4–6 (3 games) against Weeks 1–3 (3 games). Small sample: 3 games compared with the 3 before them.

Evidence:Team dashboard

Defensive EPA per play allowed: +0.073 in Weeks 1–3, +0.101 in Weeks 4–6 — worse by 0.029 EPA.

Compared: Mean per game, Weeks 4–6 (3 games) against Weeks 1–3 (3 games). Small sample: 3 games compared with the 3 before them.

Evidence:Team dashboard

Noah Fant: EPA per play climbed +0.785 while snap share rose +18.2 pts.

Compared: Mean of the player's last 3 games played against the 2 before them. Small sample: 3 games compared with the 2 before them.

Evidence:Noah Fant profile

Alvin Kamara: EPA per play moved from −0.323 to −0.088 across the last 3 games.

Compared: Mean of the player's last 3 games played against the 2 before them. Small sample: 3 games compared with the 2 before them.

Evidence:Alvin Kamara profile

Offensive EPA per play, season to date: −0.043 · 20th of 32.

Why it matters: The recent decline adds to a below-middle season: the unit ranks 20th of 32.

Compared: 2026 season to date, ranked against all 32 teams.

Evidence:League ranking on the team dashboard

Offensive success rate, season to date: 41.9% · 20th of 32.

Why it matters: The recent decline adds to a below-middle season: the unit ranks 20th of 32.

Compared: 2026 season to date, ranked against all 32 teams.

Evidence:League ranking on the team dashboard

Defensive EPA per play allowed, season to date: +0.071 · 27th of 32.

Why it matters: The recent decline adds to a below-middle season: the unit ranks 27th of 32.

Compared: 2026 season to date, ranked against all 32 teams.

Evidence:League ranking on the team dashboard

Red-zone touchdown rate: 81.0% · 2nd of 32.

Why it matters: Among the five best units in the league on this measure through Week 6 (2nd of 32).

Compared: 2026 season to date, ranked against all 32 teams.

Evidence:League ranking on the team dashboard

Success rate allowed: 49.5% · 32nd of 32.

Why it matters: Among the five weakest units in the league on this measure through Week 6 (32nd of 32).

Compared: 2026 season to date, ranked against all 32 teams.

Evidence:League ranking on the team dashboard

Week 7 vs Pittsburgh Steelers: Sunday, October 25 · 9:30 AM ET · Stade de France, neutral site.

Evidence:Game plan

Model projection: a 2.2-point Saints loss, 43.6% win probability; the market line is -2.5.

What to monitor: A model estimate from season-to-date efficiency, not a result. It does not see injuries, roster moves or weather.

Evidence:Game plan projection

Week 7 matchup, risk: Saints rushing defence vs Pittsburgh Steelers offence — Saints EPA per carry allowed −0.003, 32nd of 32; EPA per carry +0.028, 5th of 32.

What to monitor: The largest measured gaps between these two teams, against the Saints. Check it against the Week 7 play-by-play.

Compared: 2026 season to date, 32nd of 32.

Evidence:Game plan

Week 7 matchup, risk: Saints turnovers offence vs Pittsburgh Steelers defence — Saints giveaways 2.6 per 100, 25th of 32; Their takeaways 2.4 per 100, 6th of 32.

What to monitor: Among the largest measured gaps between these two teams, against the Saints. Check it against the Week 7 play-by-play.

Compared: 2026 season to date, 25th of 32.

Evidence:Game plan

Danny Stutsman: Snap share moved from 33.7% to 91.0% over the last 3 games.

What to monitor: Watch whether this role holds in Week 7.

Compared: Mean of the player's last 3 games played against the 3 before them. Small sample: 3 games compared with the 3 before them.

Evidence:Danny Stutsman profile

Pete Werner: Snap share moved from 57.3% to 92.3% over the last 3 games.

What to monitor: Watch whether this role holds in Week 7.

Compared: Mean of the player's last 3 games played against the 3 before them. Small sample: 3 games compared with the 3 before them.

Evidence:Pete Werner profile